Hacker News: oezi

New comment by oezi in "The Strongest El Niño Ever"

oezi — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 23:31:27 +0000

Your take is too fatalistic because any reduction in Co2 emissions is helpful. It isn't an all or nothing thing.

The cost estimates for eliminating Co2 emissions are also not very high. In the range of 1-2x total GDP. Would be doable if 3-5% of GDP is spent over the next 20-30 years.

I agree that all oil will be dug up and sold but there is a caveat: not at any price. If solar and wind continue their trajectory their dominance is inevitable.

New comment by oezi in "The new rules of context engineering for Claude 5 generation models"

oezi — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 08:46:57 +0000

Maybe we need LLMs which have an internal dialogue rather than the current monologue.

New comment by oezi in "Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day"

oezi — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:36:41 +0000

I also was confused by this and the usage of the term bet for low/med/high risk. Are up and down supposed to model buying calls/puts? Or buying the stock itself? Wagering 8800 USD of 10000 on high to get 115 USD return was pointing at stocks (rather than options).

New comment by oezi in "The Growing Compute Shortage"

oezi — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 11:25:16 +0000

At least one graph showing global total datacenter compute over time and projected to come online would have been helpful.

New comment by oezi in "Who's afraid of Chinese models?"

oezi — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:32:42 +0000

The article makes a great point that the token industry is going to be commoditized as time goes on.

Following this argument the key for each player will be the underlying cost structure and serving capacity to offset the upfront R&D cost.

The cost infrastructure will be driven by access to cheap electricity and cheap chips. The capacity will be driven primarily by depth of pockets now to buy all available supply in chips/mem/data center building capacity. While China is certainly in the lead on cheap energy, I am wondering if they can/want to beat the > 1tn USD being spent on data centers right now. Following the example in the article:

If company C from China sells 10 units for 20 USD produced for 10 USD they pocket 100 USD.

If company A from America can sell 100 units for 20 USD produced for 15 units, they pocket 500 USD or 5/6th of the market's profits.

New comment by oezi in "Transcribe.cpp"

oezi — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 04:40:09 +0000

How close do you aim for when it comes to drop-in vs whisper.cpp? Are timestamps per word and character something aimed for? How about multi-lingual transcription or hallucination suppression?

The github page doesn't seem to go into depth on these orthogonal topics. May have missed it.

New comment by oezi in "US Corporate Insiders Are Selling Stocks at a Near Record Pace"

oezi — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 06:32:30 +0000

Nasdaq 100 is up 13% YTD, so you may have a point. 20% more isn't so much more.

New comment by oezi in "Claude Code(Fable) refused my slow down instruction"

oezi — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 05:38:29 +0000

Claude code doesn't expose the model to the usage of sleep or timing commands. For instance it cannot set up loops on its own (and only in rare cases can stop them).

To prevent cache timeout you can do: /loop 55m continue if any open task remains

New comment by oezi in "$65K to work at Anthropic? Debate ensues amid IPO wave"

oezi — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 01:02:23 +0000

On first read of the headline I thought they are now offering a way to join Anthropic by paying them 65k USD. Sounds like a steal to get Anthropic on your resume!

New comment by oezi in "The fine print that follows you out the door: non-compete clauses are spreading"

oezi — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 06:00:01 +0000

I like the German non-compete requirements (by law): max non-compete length is 24 months. Non-competes need to be reimbursed at half the last salary. The non-compete also needs to be specific to a real competition scenario (e.g. you taking your clients with you). For a job like being a generic doctor which any doctor could do, that would likely fail.

If the non-compete is so broad that it makes you unemployable that also makes it void.

New comment by oezi in "Mesh LLM: distributed AI computing on iroh"

oezi — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 02:03:32 +0000

Even if transport is encrypted, the LLM computations will always be clear text, right?

New comment by oezi in "SimPolitics: America’s quest to solve politics with computers"

oezi — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 02:53:34 +0000

I get the bearish case but it is easy to forget how much difference good vs bad politics can have and that politics isn't primarily a game of facts. It is an optimization problem under many unknowns and its history is littered with academic theories debunked and hard won compromises.

New comment by oezi in "AI 2040: Plan A"

oezi — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 20:55:32 +0000

Forecasting that the GPU build-out will reach 100 trillion USD in 2034 is wild (that's triple the US GDP in 8 years). And another 10x within 2 years.

I am not sure where they believe that amount of capital could come from. It would require central bank level money printing never seen before.

https://ai-2040.com/supplements/compute-supplement

New comment by oezi in "GPT-5.6"

oezi — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 20:14:27 +0000

Can you elaborate?

New comment by oezi in "We're extending access to Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 12"

oezi — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 03:28:53 +0000

I track the subscription value against API rates and you get between 13-20k at current rates. When Fable launched I got 32k for a short time. 500 USD per day is thus very little.

New comment by oezi in "Why skilled workers come to Germany and then leave again"

oezi — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 11:39:42 +0000

Sorry, but most Europeans don't use the term anymore since the Nazis tried to impose a catastrophic societal order based on their race ideology.

White people were only white if they could show bloodlines reaching back generations. One jewish great-grandfather would make you intelligible for the Arian race. They would laugh at your notion of white vs black.

New comment by oezi in "Costco is the anti-Amazon"

oezi — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 01:17:57 +0000

I said nothing about that. But there are tipping points where buying too much is actually wasteful.

New comment by oezi in "Costco is the anti-Amazon"

oezi — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 21:25:22 +0000

Since toilet paper is mostly non-perishable it shouldn't really matter, right? But for anything that goes bad there is also a tipping point where you bought too much and have things go to waste.

New comment by oezi in "Costco is the anti-Amazon"

oezi — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 21:21:30 +0000

I think the poster is indeed criticizing bulk shopping. I would then to agree that shopping in bulk makes it easier to overprovision or to have things go to waste or being bought superfluously. I am also not sure about it being cheaper in total because my experience with bulk sellers is that they achieve their profit margins by their product mix, so selling you some cheap items as loss leaders or discount items and recouping on others that you buy at the same time. Doing weekly shopping trips at different supermarkets can counteract that by letting you buy more various promotional items.

Of course it comes down to how much personal time you then have to spend on shopping to drive your bill down.

New comment by oezi in "Costco is the anti-Amazon"

oezi — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 21:02:26 +0000

If you have ever watched a deliver truck on their tracking app to crawl its way to you from stop to stop you realize the most optimistic timing is maybe 1 minute per package. Assuming the truck, driver, gas could be operated for 60 USD/hr the marginal cost seems more like 1 USD per package, but likely more.