Also, being constantly warned that I was speeding in rural areas where the car missed a speed limit sign caused me to start ignoring the speeding alarm within a few hours of driving the car.

I feel like there’s some lesson here in building to the lowest common denominator, and giving people products rather than tools (tools are more dangerous, but more useful), but maybe I’m just grumpy.

The bitter lesson would claim that we only need one model with more data thrown at it, but I’m a bit skeptical that we’ll end up with “the one true way” of building a model, and I think there will be model tradeoffs that we can pick from as the industry matures.

I predict that mech interp and things like Neuronpedia will matter more and more over time, and the frontier providers are disincentivized from providing those tools

Why do we have measles outbreaks? Because people aren’t vaccinating their kids.

Why aren’t people vaccinating their kids? Because there seems to be a generalized fear of vaccinations and their side effects

Why does this fear exist? I’m at a loss. Is it because people aren’t less educated now than they were 30 years ago? Is it because deadly diseases have fallen out of public consciousness? Was there a coordinated external effort to psyop the American people into believing such things (now I’m starting to feel like a conspiracy theorist)?

None of these reasons seem super compelling to me. The “diseases fell out of public consciousness” feels compelling at first, but why would there not have been some admonishment from grandparents who knew someone who died from polio? That seems like family lore that wouldn’t get lost.

Why not run a publicly funded ad campaign with images that look like cigarette packaging? Remind people what these now-preventable diseases look like.

It just seems wild to me that this issue seems to be getting worse. It’s like watching car crashes rise while people are cutting their own brake lines and then continuing to cut brake lines (and encourage others to di so) after their friends die. Wtf is even happening?

What you get is vacuous, choppy, wordy, and hyperbolic. I have found that adding secondary passes for tone and style improve the readability dramatically.

It’s not super onerous, but it is much more annoying than the theoretical alternative of allowing people to install software of their choosing on their hardware (i.e. download the binary and run it)

I think they might have had much more success with a strategy like the R32 EV. Take something classic (like the Testarossa) and electrify it. Remind people that EVs are an evolution rather than a capitulation to generic boringness.

Said differently, what is prediction but composition projected forward through time/ideas?

For example, we could define consciousness as the ability to communicate claimed internal states. Perhaps there could be a complexity metric that gives us a metric of consciousness.

We could define consciousness as the ability to respond to stimuli in complex ways. This would make a supermarket’s automatic doors slightly conscious.

Personally, I don’t really care how it is defined in any particular conversation, so long as it is defined. Otherwise we’re just flailing at each other in the dark.

It’s a derivation of the Y combinator from ruby lambdas

To be clear, there is real, underlying value & revenue. But there’s a lot of froth right now

The greats on youtube are also worth watching: 3B1B, numberphile, etc.

[0] https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLAqhIrjkxbuWI23v9cThsA9Gv... [1] https://youtu.be/qx7hirqgfuU?si=8zmrbazuvnz379gk

The short answer, as far as I’m aware, is that no one really knows. The longer answer is that we have a lot of partial answers that, in my mind, basically boil down to: model architectures draw a walk through the high dimensional vector space of concepts, and we’ve tuned them to land on the right answer. The fact that they do so consistently says something about how we encode logic in language and the effectiveness of these embedding/latent spaces.