<rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>Hacker News: probably_wrong</title><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=probably_wrong</link><description>Hacker News RSS</description><docs>https://hnrss.org/</docs><generator>hnrss v2.1.1</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2026 07:59:26 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://hnrss.org/user?id=probably_wrong" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"></atom:link><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "US Military's cyber command unit grapples with cluster of deaths by suicide"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Some searching led me to this report from an NGO called "AirWars" [1] which, in connection with The Guardian, reports that "at least 22,679, and potentially as many as 48,308 civilians, have been likely killed by US strikes".<p>You can't bomb an apartment without also hitting the neighbors. And while we know the US has the the technology to hit a car driver without (physically) hurting the passenger, we also know that this is not the type of technology deployed regularly.<p>I don't think a drone operator would be naive enough to believe that they are killing exclusively military targets and no one else.<p>[1] <a href="https://airwars.org/tens-of-thousands-of-civilians-likely-killed-by-us-in-forever-wars/" rel="nofollow">https://airwars.org/tens-of-thousands-of-civilians-likely-ki...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 08 Aug 2026 20:09:50 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49225417</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49225417</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49225417</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "I am retiring from fulltime writing (& pseudonymity) to launch Guardian Angel"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Also, price of an Nvidia RTX 4090 according to a random website [1]:<p>Jan. 2023: $1920<p>Jan. 2024: $1811<p>Jan. 2025: $1639<p>Jan. 2026: $2193<p>[1] <a href="https://bestvaluegpu.com/history/new-and-used-rtx-4090-price-history-and-specs/" rel="nofollow">https://bestvaluegpu.com/history/new-and-used-rtx-4090-price...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:56:26 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49179845</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49179845</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49179845</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "Germany Records Historic 12B KWh Solar Feed-In in July 2026"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> <i>Yeah I was in Europe for a month last month and this summer was the best ever.</i><p>I imagine you don't intend it like that, but last month killed an extra five thousand people in Germany alone [1], more than one thousand of them in a single day [2].<p>"People may have died and the economy may be in trouble but my summer was amazing" is not the best take.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-june-heat-wave-linked-to-5000-excess-deaths/a-77885295" rel="nofollow">https://www.dw.com/en/germany-june-heat-wave-linked-to-5000-...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gvL9c/4/" rel="nofollow">https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gvL9c/4/</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2026 17:24:54 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49172000</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49172000</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49172000</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "More German than many Germans"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> <i>What other better solution do you imagine?</i><p>I believe there are two ways to deal with a system that's not working as intended.<p>One alternative is to have shock buffers for unexpected circumstances. Berlin, known for its chaotic nature, used to have a second queue at the Foreigner's Office for people who needed an appointment <i>today</i>. You had to queue sometimes even from 3am on, which sucks, but it sucked less than having to cancel your holidays because you couldn't get an appointment. In my case all I needed was a signed piece of paper saying "this person is allowed to stay in Germany until we finally process their papers", but the office had no mechanism (or no will?) to do so.<p>The other alternative is to <i>pretend</i> that the system works fine, which is what the German administration is currently doing. Sure, I could hire an attorney to sue the government - it will cost me an upright investment of 1k€, it will take months, and all I'll get afterwards is most of my administrative costs (forget about my canceled flight) and an appointment.<p><i>Edit:</i> on the topic of the GmbH, it is a complex topic because the German government made it complex. Estonia, Texas, and my own home country have much simpler rules for starting your own small company. Every government keeps promising "we'll simplify bureaucracy and we'll digitize" and yet all we get is new rules and more letters.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:13:51 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153701</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153701</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153701</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "More German than many Germans"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Without writing my entire life story, here are some pointers.<p>Best city: Leverkusen. Easy to get appointments, incredibly friendly personnel. Honorable mention for Potsdam.<p>Worst city: Saarbrücken. I was undocumented a couple months because they couldn't get hold of my documents and refused to give me <i>anything</i> saying it wasn't my fault. They called security to bring me outside, too. When I pointed out that without documents I could be deported they laughed and said "that almost never happens".<p>Worst delay: Köln. They sat on my documents for two years - not because they <i>had</i> to, mind you, but partially because they decided to proof from scratch documents that had already been vetted by Leverkusen. In the end I had to sue them.<p>Most improved: Berlin. By the time I left they went from overworked to quite okay. They also used to offer a queue for those who needed an appointment <i>right now</i> but couldn't get one the official way.<p>Generally speaking big cities are a nightmare and small cities are a delight.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:43:43 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153463</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153463</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153463</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "More German than many Germans"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>On the topic of rules:<p>> <i>[Rules mean that] someone, or a group of people, sat down and thought about that specific thing and decided on a standard for everyone. When you have to do something, you don't feel lost, because you can just look it up. You don't have to find someone who knows.</i><p>I mildly disagree with this stance for two reasons.<p>First, "you can just look it up" it's like arguing that it's okay if the Linux kernel is badly documented because you can inspect the source code anytime. Try and figure out the rules for opening a GmbH by yourself (and the advantages over a Ug) and let me know if you feel comfortable in doing it without "finding someone who knows".<p>Second, the problem with inflexible rules is that you can't do anything when someone else breaks them. The case that everybody knows: if you need to renew your residence permit before a specific date you cannot book more than X weeks in advance (rule 1), you have a right to an appointment (rule 2), and the online system is the one and only way to get one (rule 3). So what happens when there are no appointments? Well, you panic, because suddenly your timeframe is very tight (thanks to rule 1) and you cannot reach anyone (rule 3) despite you having a right (rule 2). What happens if you respectfully but firmly demand that which is your legal right? Based on my experience, someone will call security to escort you out. And while I never thought my first time suing someone would be the German government, that was the only way to get them to give me my citizenship after literal years of delays.<p>Rules are fine, but only when everyone follows them. Once the government starts ignoring them while demanding that everyone else follows them, every rule becomes a potential headache.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:13:00 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153189</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153189</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49153189</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "UEFA and its national associations will not participate in FIFA competitions"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The bid was accepted in 2018, during Trump's first presidency. So both yes and no.<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_bids" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_bids</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:49:12 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120613</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120613</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120613</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "UEFA and its national associations will not participate in FIFA competitions"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Mildly off-topic, but also mildly interesting.<p>The Wikipedia page for "Ratlines" [1] discusses "systems of escape routes used by Nazis and their collaborators" and how they settled in Rome, Spain, Genoa, and various South American countries.<p>But there is no mention of Werner Von Braun there - for that you need to go to "List of Germans relocated to the US via Operation Paperclip" [2], which is described as a list of "German scientists, engineers, and technicians (...) taken from the former Nazi Germany to the U.S. for government employment".<p>So my answer would have been "everywhere", but apparently Nazis fled exclusively to South America while good, honest German citizens working for the official German party were taken to the US.<p>[1] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II)#Ratline_escapees" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratlines_(World_War_II)#Ratlin...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Germans_relocated_to_the_US_via_Operation_Paperclip" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Germans_relocated_to_t...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:45:01 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120578</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120578</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120578</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "UEFA and its national associations will not participate in FIFA competitions"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I agree that something must be done, but the hydration break is the wrong solution for two reasons.<p>First, plenty of countries have been regularly playing under these conditions and will keep doing so after the World Cup. Too hot to play in the afternoon? Play at night.<p>Second, and more important, it changes the game in a major way because playing for 90 minutes with a single break is not the same as playing with three. I imagine data will say whether this has an effect or not, but I cannot imagine that an endurance player would feel the same if they have to always stop halfway.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:31:28 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120506</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120506</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120506</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "I flagged two research papers for fake authors and both were accepted as orals"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Speaking for the *ACL conferences, they are not "random people" in the sense that they must have "(a) at least two papers in main ACL events or Findings, plus (b) at least one more paper in the ACL Anthology or a major ML/AI venue" [1]. So they are published authors.<p>As for it "being a thing": sadly yes. The number of papers has been steadily increasing over the years and the number of volunteer authors is simply not enough.<p>[1] <a href="https://aclrollingreview.org/incentives2025" rel="nofollow">https://aclrollingreview.org/incentives2025</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:57:44 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120291</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120291</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49120291</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "Ron Gilbert started production on Thimbleweed Park 2"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The best answer to that question is the development blog they made for the first game:<p><a href="https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/archives.html" rel="nofollow">https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/archives.html</a><p>At a quick glance: four months for the engine (which they wrote from scratch [1]) and, based on the budget [2], roughly nine months for crowdsourcing and pre-production (setting the overall story and puzzles, deciding on the look of the game, building small proofs-of-concept), seven months for production, three months for testing and bugfixing, and two months for release (which they overshot by three months).<p>[1] <a href="https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/roadmap1.html" rel="nofollow">https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/roadmap1.html</a><p>[2] <a href="https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/budget1.html" rel="nofollow">https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/budget1.html</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2026 15:56:54 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49111830</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49111830</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49111830</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "Ron Gilbert started production on Thimbleweed Park 2"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>If you feel like trying a hail Mary to perhaps improve the ending I have two theories that I couldn't muster enough strength to check. Also, spoilers from here on.<p>First, there's a fridge that you can't open close to the ending of the game and that I understand as containing the body of the ghost character. I imagine there must be a way to open it, if only to give him closure.<p>Second, and related: given that the ending shows you a Basic prompt I imagine there has to be a way to use it for something other than restarting the game. I believe there was (for instance) a part of the game about getting a videotape but, once you had the right equipment, was no longer available to get. Perhaps those parts of the game can be unlocked if you know how to use the console to set the proper variables.<p>I've long hoped that we've all been getting the bad ending while there's a second one hidden somewhere (which has been hinted at [1]), but since I was fairly down after the ending I got I couldn't muster the energy to replay it all again.<p>> <i>Thimbleweed Park 1 has possibly the worst ending of a game, ever.</i><p>I see that <i>someone</i> hasn't played the latest Monkey Island.<p>[1] <a href="https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/maniac_the_cave_thimbleweed.html" rel="nofollow">https://blog.thimbleweedpark.com/maniac_the_cave_thimbleweed...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2026 14:47:01 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110832</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110832</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110832</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "Some thoughts about Anthropic's new cryptanalysis results"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Let's say I'm one of such people. How would you convince me that your comment is any different from the ones we've been getting since roughly GPT-3 claiming that AGI is finally here and that, while the previous models were bad, <i>this</i> time they'll live up to the hype?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2026 07:42:04 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49107073</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49107073</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49107073</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "Judge Rejects Google's Attempt to DMCA Its Way Out of Being Scraped"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I may have a smaller one. I don't know exactly where it is, but at least I know exactly how fast it's moving.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2026 21:41:54 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49075873</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49075873</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49075873</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "LLM Usage in Debian: Three Proposals"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I would like to offer this comment from three days ago as counterpoint:<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49013694">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49013694</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2026 09:29:06 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49056259</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49056259</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49056259</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "So Reddit has decided that plain HTML is unsafe"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I deleted my account when they deprecated i.reddit.com. It's mildly funny to read comments lamenting the death of "the good mobile interface" when the <i>amazing</i> one was already killed years ago.<p>> <i>we have yet to see an alternative that can sustain mass migration.</i><p>I had hopes for Digg, but whatever it is they ended up building it's clearly not that.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:32:31 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49018489</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49018489</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49018489</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "An old patent inspired the new "Y-zipper", a three-sided fastener"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I suggest reading the original linked article, if only because it includes a video with the zipper in action:<p><a href="https://news.mit.edu/2026/three-sided-y-zipper-design-0504" rel="nofollow">https://news.mit.edu/2026/three-sided-y-zipper-design-0504</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 16:03:13 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49008923</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49008923</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49008923</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "How we measured AI writing across arXiv, and where the measurement breaks"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The problem with spam is that it's not a technology like AI is. So I suggest taking cars instead.<p>Cars have plenty of advantages, and yet no one would say "the number of pedestrians killed by cars is rising, but that's an issue with the drivers". In fact, the opposite is true: from fines and school zones to speed bumps and bollards, we have accepted that cars bring structural problems with them that cannot be solved at the driver level alone.<p>> <i>we need new tools to filter out junk</i><p>Agreed, but if my office suddenly was flooded with garbage my first thought wouldn't be "I need more, bigger trash cans" but rather "who brought all this junk here and why?". To simply assume that the garbage is a sudden natural phenomena that I have to live with seems, at the very least, unfair.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 19:20:58 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48983623</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48983623</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48983623</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "How we measured AI writing across arXiv, and where the measurement breaks"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I recently desk-rejected a paper where every single citation in its Introduction was hallucinated. That means that the entire connection between what the author(s) did and how it relates to existing research was simply made up. I've never seen this happening before AI but now there's at least one paper in every cycle pulling something similar.<p>My problem therefore is: we are seeing more and more papers written with tools that are known to make up facts, citations, and even entire papers. And the number of papers has increased, too. I therefore see it less as "people are being more productive" and more "people are releasing bad science much faster than we can keep up with".</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 17:25:36 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48981914</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48981914</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48981914</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by probably_wrong in "Kaiser nurses say AI, surveillance are making their jobs and patient care worse"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Since we're off-topic, most of the information in that article (as it's often the case) is based mostly on Christopher Hitchen's work (book and documentary), a man who describes himself as "antitheist" and made a living out of publicly fighting religion. So not exactly an objective reporter.<p>I read a good chunk of the criticism against Mother Theresa as either willfull misunderstanding and/or just repeating the same literal three quotes from Hitchen's book (seriously, they're always there). I cannot say whether she was a good person or not, but I can say: if you ask "which evidence is there which doesn't lead back to a man with a personal vendetta?", the list gets significantly shorter.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2026 09:09:51 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48956398</link><dc:creator>probably_wrong</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48956398</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48956398</guid></item></channel></rss>