Hacker News: pu_pe

New comment by pu_pe in "DeepSeek API Pricing Update"

pu_pe — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 14:08:21 +0000

This now places deepseek flash v4 from DeepSeek themselves at higher prices than openrouter (depending on caching). Will be interesting to see if third party prices remain the same.

New comment by pu_pe in "Don't Look Up"

pu_pe — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 06:55:36 +0000

> What happens to the stock price of a company that missed its revenue targets by a factor of 5?

It depends. Tesla is a good example of how those things are not as clear cut as you might think.

The world is starving for more AI compute. Nvidia's GPUs are selling for 2x or 3x their former price, RAM prices increased even more, all because demand is huge right now. If anything buying those chips at bulk discount and then selling them right back to consumers would already be profitable.

New comment by pu_pe in "Don't Look Up"

pu_pe — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:24:36 +0000

Be careful that you are not basing your argument on whether you personally like lemonade.

If a kid's lemonade stand increased its revenue from $1B/year to $100B/year in two years, we would be paying serious attention to their product. People seem to love that lemonade! At this level of increased demand, maybe it's ok to let this kid borrow $1T over 5 years, because even if his growth slows down to 2x/year instead of 10x/year, he will still be covering that investment. That's hopeful and risky, but not at all insane in my view.

New comment by pu_pe in "DeepSeek costs OpenCode Go user $1.14/day; dual DGX breaks even in 24 years"

pu_pe — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 13:32:12 +0000

That's only true if the value of keeping your data and code private is zero. And in that case, Anthropic and OpenAI subscription plans may be even cheaper per day.

New comment by pu_pe in "Muse Glimmer: 30B-parameter model optimized for always-on local agent workflows"

pu_pe — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 13:27:42 +0000

Yeah but you can probably have everything ready and then accelerate as necessary. Meta itself did this when releasing Llama 4, it was a really botched release right when they were feeling the heat from DeepSeek and others.

New comment by pu_pe in "Muse Glimmer: 30B-parameter model optimized for always-on local agent workflows"

pu_pe — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:33:29 +0000

Based on the benchmarks, it seems that Muse Glimmer barely edges out against Qwen3.6 27B, except for tool-calling skills (MCP, etc.). I wouldn't be surprised if they released it now because they are afraid they wouldn't beat Qwen3.8 27B.

New comment by pu_pe in "2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out"

pu_pe — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 10:02:09 +0000

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

New comment by pu_pe in "Reverse Jevons Paradox"

pu_pe — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 08:23:45 +0000

Jevons Paradox is called a paradox because it is non-intuitive. It is very intuitive to conclude that when costs go up, people will use less of that thing.

New comment by pu_pe in "The AI Demand Bubble"

pu_pe — Thu, 06 Aug 2026 07:30:32 +0000

I meant that the current business model of the hyperscalers is highly profitable, and that model is selling compute that you could build yourself but you'd rather not to. If OpenAI or Anthropic default because people prefer open source models, they will still have compute for rent. The only scenario in which they are truly screwed is if demand for AI goes down.

New comment by pu_pe in "The AI Demand Bubble"

pu_pe — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:01:24 +0000

Profit margin determines whether OpenAI and Anthropic survive. The hyperscalers would be fine with a model where they make huge investments in infrastructure and you pay to access them per use/per hour. That is already their model for cloud compute and it is highly profitable, even though the vast majority of what people do with it (storage, VMs, etc.) is a commodity.

New comment by pu_pe in "The US is not a democracy but an oligarchy, study concludes (2014)"

pu_pe — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:31:14 +0000

> The US has slid below Hungary in democracy, Hungary was also straight sliding towards dictatorship. Hungary did a 180 though by electing Peter Maygar. Hopefully the US can do a 180 in the midterms.

Considering TFA is from 2014 and knowing the Democratic Party, I think instead of a 180 you could at best expect a 20

New comment by pu_pe in "Why did we wait so long for the bicycle? (2019)"

pu_pe — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:52:51 +0000

When the Wright Brothers first came to Europe in 1908, their prototype could fly for several kilometers of controlled flight. The best European prototypes at that time were absolutely inferior, which is why the Wright Brothers immediately managed to sign contracts with European companies. They introduced the three-axis control system which was a major innovation, basically the opposite of a patent troll.

New comment by pu_pe in "The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet"

pu_pe — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:20:12 +0000

Anthropic is perceived as the leading AI company in the world. Even if they started selling inference alone, people would prefer to pay them a premium for it rather than figuring out how to operate opencode or other replacements. Add to that government contracts, enterprise and other markets, and I think Anthropic would be totally fine even if models plateau.

Transistor count has increased exponentially for decades and so did demand for compute. I think we will see a similar phenomenon with AI.

New comment by pu_pe in "The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet"

pu_pe — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:14:58 +0000

> And the fundamentals here are OpenAI and Anthropic, which are massively valued companies. They have humongous commitments and are generating real revenue on the order of twenty billion a year.

I think the size of their commitments is predicated on demand. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is now close to $50 billion, a fivefold increase from a year before [1]. They are making big investments, like $200 billion on Google's TPUs over the next five years [2], but those numbers seem justified by their expected revenue this year alone. If Anthropic cannot capture that revenue, someone else will.

Stock market valuations are a different beast, I personally think we have been due for a correction for ages now. But criticism of AI investment and particularly betting that it will all come crashing soon appears misguided to me. I can see a future where AI expenditures shifts around, not a future where everyone simply stops spending in AI all of a sudden.

[1] https://www.marketscale.com/industries/software-and-technolo...

[2] https://www.resultsense.com/news/2026-05-06-anthropic-200bn-...

New comment by pu_pe in "The End of an Era"

pu_pe — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:40:34 +0000

It's the end of many eras, all at once. I think the same dilemma will appear for games, music and film too. As our ability to detect AI content deteriorates most authors will resort to it, at varying degrees.

New comment by pu_pe in "Pacing the frontier"

pu_pe — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 07:14:02 +0000

Because there are many legitimate uses for nucleotide synthesis, and we would have to slow scientists down by adding more regulation. The other problem is that it's not like it's very difficult to do it, so a motivated person could still do it even without access to these services.

New comment by pu_pe in "AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough"

pu_pe — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:17:19 +0000

I wouldn't bet on token consumption going down any time soon. In the past year or so, the increase has been exponential [1].

[1] https://en.macromicro.me/charts/148532/world-openrouter-toke...

New comment by pu_pe in "AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough"

pu_pe — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:34:15 +0000

> Exponential View, a consultancy, counts $175bn of generative-AI revenue, on an annualised basis, in June. In a recent paper Anton Korinek of Anthropic and Patrick McKelvey of the Bank of Canada estimate total “AI services” revenue. Adapting their methodology, we reckon this was $220bn (again annualised) in the first quarter of this year. Ramp’s data imply that 2-3% of business spending now goes on AI, pointing to $170bn a year.

So between $170bn-220bn in annualized AI revenue today. Maybe it doesn't cover trillion-dollar bets but this is a very substantial number.

New comment by pu_pe in "AI companies are shredding rare books"

pu_pe — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 13:14:58 +0000

From what I understand, the rare books in question are not some historically relevant medieval manuscripts, but rather some relatively recent books (still under copyright) for which there are few print copies available for purchase.

I am not sure that physically destructing one copy of this type of book to preserve its contents digitally is so bad. Pretty much anything that is still under copyright should be valuable only for its content, not for the physical medium it's printed on.

New comment by pu_pe in "How is the Bun rewrite in Rust going?"

pu_pe — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:45:59 +0000

I am fascinated by the discourse around this Bun rewrite. I read a lot of drama and personal accusations, there are pieces like this one trying to extract clues, and it seems everyone has a deeper ideological concern behind whatever they are trying to say. For this article, it seems to be skepticism towards AI and how successful it can be at replacing programmers. Other takes, like the one from the Zig maintainer, were also along those lines but more about the open source ethics and the future of that in a LLM world.

I am mostly bullish on AI capabilities, so from my perspective I don't see why we should be skeptical that frontier LLMs guided by experienced devs can translate whole libraries like that. Good follow-up questions would be how expensive it currently is to do so, and whether we will see people branching into all-in on AI versus no-AI camps as happened in this case.