You absolutely can market make on Polymarket. The barrier to entry is actually extremely low; you can do it from an AWS instance in Dublin (the closest non-geo-restricted region to the Polymarket exchange), and don't need the kind of infra that is needed to market-make on US stocks. Retail can absolutely do it on anything crypto-based.

In order to market make, you just need to price probabilities better than everyone else. That's it.

On Wall Street on the other hand it has come down to FPGAs and free space microwave links because fiber optics' index of refraction causes a ~31% reduction in the speed of light. If you don't have millions of dollars you can't get into that game. Over-regulation cas resulted in this space being only accessible to the ultra-rich.

ML can help you optimize things after that, but locating diamonds in a soup of noise is not really where ML shines.

The prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes. If that's the level you are playing on, you're playing at the lowest possible level, and probably won't win.

The markets are now about properly modelling other peoples' manipulation of prediction. That's how Wall Street works as well. Companies can beat earnings and their stocks crash immediately after. It makes zero sense if you just model companies. It makes full sense if you stochastically model how an ensemble of humans behave under incentives and human-written bots behave under human-written policies.

"Hairdryer sometimes get pointed at the weather sensor" and "Government sometimes fudges jobs/CPI data" are more or less the same thing. Build it into your model. That's the level you need to play on to profit in these markets. It's not that different from how a chess engine works.

I disagree.

1. I need to be able to change SSL root cert, disable SSL cert pinning, and intentionally MITM installed apps and see what they are sending about me to their servers. Open source OS isn't enough if the apps aren't open source.

2. "Apps sending information about me to their motherships that I don't consent to them sending" is a MUCH bigger problem these days than people messing with SSL, so I accept the risks of (1)

3. Verified boot is big brother's dream. I want to be able to verify my own OS.

We do, just tell it what you want in your AGENTS.md file.

Agents also often respond well to user frustration signs, like threatening to not continue your subscription.

I don't do that. My password manager simulates keystrokes 2 seconds after I hit the button. I switch to the other window and my password gets punched in without going through the clipboard. Specifically to avoid this attack.

> Currently I use my Yubikeys as passkeys

I have Yubikeys but for 2FA. So we're back to 1FA now but just "something you have" and no "something you know" ?

I don't think average Joe is going to understand these passkeys either.

Quite the opposite for me. I'd like to have freedom to work on things I want to work on without "paying rent", "paying medical bills", or "short term profitability" being a constraint.

Just pointing out why capitalism + solar is a failure. Capitalism reprices the good thing to be equally expensive to the bad thing, so that nobody buys the good thing anymore.

I have no intention to print weapons, but just saying that this law does nothing.

Too expensive. It's probably producing 200 watts average for 8 hours a day. That's 1600 watt hours, which is about $1.60 at PG&E prices. That would take 187 days to recoup the cost of just the panel.

If you include installation costs and "what PG&E steals if you wire it to the same grid" it's probably more like 4x that, which is too long.

Tell me when we can have 400 watt solar panels for $50. Stupid capitalism literally forces solar panel prices to make it unprofitable.

People should never have to take out loans for solar. Solar should be subsidized and forced by the government to be so cheap that it repays for its cost within a month. Then we're talking. Most things I buy to save money, I expect them to repay within a month. Maybe 2 months max.

If they wanted a gate on designs it would have to happen in slicing software, not the actual printer.

Is it possible that there are alternative ways than handwriting for cognitive development?

Probably in 500 BC they said you had to hack at stone with a chisel for cognitive development, and then someone invented the pen and paper.

The difference is the task had to change as well. People were able to write thousands of pages (rather than a few stone blocks) over their education, and making full use of that ability in order to "keep the brain CPU close to 100%" was a necessary concurrent change in order to preserve cognitive devolpment.

You're Amazon. You give OpenAI $50B cash investment, they then hand you back the $50B over time because they buy $50B worth of Amazon AWS services (they would use AWS or other equivalent compute anyway). OpenAI pays an additional $1-5B in sales taxes on top of their $50B compute purchase. Now let's say you have $25B opex for said compute. You then have $25B profits, you pay 21% corporate taxes on the profits, so you too owe the government about $5B. Government collects around $6-10B on this whole transaction.

Situation B:

You're Amazon. You let OpenAI use your services by handing them API credentials that unlock what would normally cost $50B worth of services, but no money changes hands. You have zero revenue from the transaction, write off the $25B opex as a tax loss on your other profits elsewhere in the company. You thus pay ~$5B less tax on your other income as a company, and OpenAI also doesn't have to pay sales tax because they didn't actually purchase anything.