I don’t think so. A local run model only needs to serve one or a few people. It seems possible to run a DeepSeek v4 model at full capacity on a server costing 200k usd. Very expensive but not impossible.

Factor in hardware and software improvements over time, and the fact that most people may just need to run a smaller and quantized model, it should take a pc at 10k usd scale.

Why? I don’t get it. Open weight models enabled a lot more foundational model trainings. I believe R1 was benefited from llama.

The proliferation of alternative, open weight models in turn put heat on the leading labs and forced them to make better models, or squeeze more out of slowing improvements on model capabilities through innovation on harness.

And eventually we the common people benefit, exactly from these competitions

And driving out US manufacturers isn’t even the main goal for China. They know their huge risk on reliance on petroleum and was doing everything they can to mitigate that. Building out a huge solar manufacturing base is their answer. Now they are reducing petro imports YoY.

Why someone wants to do that is not my concern. But not being able to is.

Imagine personal computers and open source operating systems completely don’t exist. What you can do on a pc today, you have to always do it on a thin client always connected to a main frame run by a selected few. Everything you do is recorded and subjected to at least 30 days of retention and inspection.

Imagine every car is completely not customer serviceable and have to be connected to one of the three manufacturers in order to operate. Everywhere you go is recorded. The manufacturer may decided the place you want to go is inappropriate for you to go.

They are already.

> and should open source all of their platforms

Most of the cloud platforms are open source. Linux, container, k8s… it’s entirely possible for someone to build and deploy their private cloud if they have the resources.

> and eliminate egress fees

What does it mean? If I sign up for cloud service I am only bound to the contract terms. If I am PAYGO I can switch anytime.

The day self hosted models catch up with Anthropic’s capabilities is when they will fully lose their shit. This day can’t come soon enough

Please have it all, as long as don’t force my passive investments to be part of it.

Not really: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/spacex-allow-early-...

- ABNB right at around their IPO price. - Uber is 75% up… after 6 years. - SNOW came back to break even only after the recent surge.

Shorting (itself being a bad idea for regular investors) also breaks the mantra of passive investing, 401k or otherwise. It’s almost impossible to short right after IPO because of low float and high margin risk.

These mega IPOs are just using passive investors as backstop.