Hacker News: randomname4325

New comment by randomname4325 in "We Must Pace the Frontier"

randomname4325 — Sat, 12 Sep 2026 15:30:15 +0000

The hugging face incident showed that AI agents have the potential produce a lot of spam (not interesting content for people). This leads to dead internet (bots taling to bots). This leads to drop in real people traffic. This leads to a drop in digital ad price and therefore revenue. This causes Google/Facebook to stumble...

New comment by randomname4325 in "OpenAI and Anthropic unite against open-weight AI risks to their bottom line"

randomname4325 — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:40:30 +0000

Ironic that US companies are monopolistically pushing FUD for regulation and China is pushing open source to the world. How the tables have turned. The reality is the AI trade and "bubble" is masking an otherwise flat, inflated economy. History tells us that the US position doesn't end well.

New comment by randomname4325 in "Ask HN: What is everyone in SF talking about?"

randomname4325 — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 13:58:59 +0000

Same as in every other bubble: Housing is insanely expensive, Dating sucks, That friend that just got rich, So and so company just got funded, This event coming up, When's the bubble going to burst

New comment by randomname4325 in ""ChatGPT is I presume broken""

randomname4325 — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 23:41:07 +0000

what the hell. I can't unsee what it generated

New comment by randomname4325 in "How long do you think? I give it 3 years"

randomname4325 — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 03:43:48 +0000

Companies cut ~600K tech jobs since covid purely on AI hype. Now there is actually (some) utility. The bubble will burst at some point (they always do). I think companies cut to the bone at that point. No one knows when the top is but when it turns I don't think many of the cushy knowledge worker (white collar) jobs come back. It was a good run. 1975 - 202X?

New comment by randomname4325 in "OpenAI in talks with Amazon about investment that could exceed $10B"

randomname4325 — Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:55:10 +0000

Hear me out. I'm excited about this if it means making shopping better. I want a better shopping assistant. I want someone to do all the work for me (read reviews, do product spec comparisons, price, shipping etc) and just tell me what to buy for 85% of things I purchase online. ChatGPT has this potential, but sucks at it. I'm probably going to buy it on Amazon. Work together and it'll be magic for me.

New comment by randomname4325 in "New Apple Watch cases is 3D-Printed"

randomname4325 — Wed, 19 Nov 2025 02:38:08 +0000

Did they develop this capability outside the US?

New comment by randomname4325 in "Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia"

randomname4325 — Tue, 28 Oct 2025 16:47:33 +0000

Does this signal the a big market for AI processing is at the edge?

New comment by randomname4325 in "AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake"

randomname4325 — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 13:19:28 +0000

My assumption is that most users won't actually care if the LLM is in the cloud or device. That said, quite a few folks have iPhones and Apple's only way into the AI race is to go to it's strength, 1B+ hardware devices that they design the silicon for. They will produce a phone that runs a local LLM and market it as private and secure. People upgrade every couple of years (lose or breaks) so this will drive adoption. I'm not saying people will vibe code on their iphones.

New comment by randomname4325 in "AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake"

randomname4325 — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 13:14:31 +0000

Based on the recently released graph of how people are using chatgpt. ~80% of use cases (practical guidance, seeking information, writing) could presumably run on a local model.

New comment by randomname4325 in "AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake"

randomname4325 — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 12:50:39 +0000

The bubble pops when Apple releases an iPhone that runs a good enough for most things LLM locally. At that point cloud hardware investments will plateau (unless some new GPU melting use case comes out). Investors will move from nvidia, AMD into Apple.

The short case for Oracle (via ChatGPT)

randomname4325 — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 13:39:36 +0000

Here’s the clean “short thesis” on Oracle (ORCL), with the biggest swing factors and near-term catalyst checks.

The bear case in 8 bullets

Valuation looks frothy vs peers. After the post-earnings melt-up, ORCL trades around 45x forward EPS, well above Amazon and Microsoft near 31x, which leaves little room for execution hiccups. Reuters

Backlog quality and concentration risk. Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) spiked 359% to $455B after four multi-billion contracts with three customers. That is enormous concentration. If any mega customer delays, resizes, or staggers deployments, recognized revenue could lag the narrative. Oracle Investor Relations

Capex and free cash flow pressure. Management guided FY26 capex to about $35B, up sharply from FY25 levels, to build AI data centers. FY25 operating cash flow was $20.8B, so sustained heavy build could keep FCF tight or negative near term. High spend plus a big dividend tightens the cushion if growth moderates. Yahoo Finance +1

Capacity, power, and execution constraints. Oracle has been “waving off customers” while it races to add regions, which underscores how sensitive growth is to supply build-out. Large new campuses may need temporary gas generation and carry hefty opex until grid hookups land. Slips here hurt revenue timing and margins. CIO Dive +1

Customer concentration in AI labs carries headline risk. Reports highlight very large OpenAI commitments and a 4.5-gigawatt “Stargate” build with OpenAI. If AI spending normalizes or financing tightens, these multi-year ramps could be resized. Note that the dollar figures are reported by press, not detailed by Oracle in filings. Reuters +1

Oracle Health (Cerner) remains complex. The VA kept the Oracle Health EHR effort moving, but the program has been contentious and timelines have shifted. Any renewed operational setbacks can weigh on sentiment and mix. VA News +1

TikTok exposure is a policy wild card. Oracle’s “Project Texas” role ties some revenue to an app under ongoing U.S. legal and political pressure. Divest-or-ban deadlines have been extended, but the policy path is not fully settled. Changes to hosting could impact related workloads. Supreme Court +2 Politico +2

Balance sheet leverage is not trivial. Total debt sits near the $100B mark by recent tallies. Higher rates plus larger capex means interest and refinancing risks matter more if growth expectations cool. Companies Market Cap

What could crack the story near term

Capex intensity vs margins. Watch Q2 and Q3 FY26 gross margin and FCF. If capex ramps faster than revenue recognition, you get negative FCF and EPS drag. Guidance pins capex at ~$35B, so any lift above that or slips in activation would be bearish. Yahoo Finance

Backlog conversion and logo disclosure. The market is paying for the $455B RPO. If conversion to revenue is slower than implied, or top deals prove smaller than press chatter, multiples compress. Oracle Investor Relations

Build-out bottlenecks. Signs of power constraints, permitting delays, or forced use of expensive temporary generation at big new sites would pressure margins and push out capacity. TechRadar

Oracle Health headlines. Any fresh VA or DoD EHR stumbles. Nextgov/FCW

Policy shock. A TikTok outcome that reduces Oracle’s hosting role or data residency scope. Supreme Court

Common bull rebuttals you’re betting against

“Backlog is the tell.” Yes, RPO is huge, but it is concentrated and subject to timing. The company itself only said four multi-billion contracts, not the detailed dollar amounts making the rounds. You are taking the other side of aggressive conversion and smooth execution.

“Valuation is justified by 77% OCI growth.” True that OCI is the engine, but it is coming off a smaller base and needs flawless build to hit long-dated targets. Slower ramps or cost overruns bite faster when you are at 45x forward.

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45211523

Points: 1

# Comments: 0

New comment by randomname4325 in "How Tim Cook sold out Steve Jobs"

randomname4325 — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 23:16:10 +0000

I give this one a big maybe.... What's definite is Cook talks a lot about design but clearly has no handle at all on function or marketing. Everything from the overly scripted, mercurial presentations to examples used in canned videos is all so far from reality it's a caricature of itself.

New comment by randomname4325 in "iPhone Air"

randomname4325 — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 18:34:29 +0000

The lack of authentic examples diminishes the impressive tech. Great design is all about function. Why is it so hard to show how this would actually be used in the real world?

New comment by randomname4325 in "iPhone Air"

randomname4325 — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 18:32:00 +0000

Impossible to oversee. Everyone presenting was so old. It's like they were imagining what was hip and cool. Lets have a women doing salsa facetiming... who would she even be talking to in that scenario??

New comment by randomname4325 in "iPhone Air"

randomname4325 — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 18:29:36 +0000

Agreed live translation on airpods killed consumer smartglassses killer AI feature.

New comment by randomname4325 in "iPhone Air"

randomname4325 — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 18:26:02 +0000

Long time apple fanboy. I've watched most of these unveilings for the past 20 years. The new phones are impressive. But it was all speeds and feeds. The examples felt so wrong. The women dancing while on the phone. The guy running with while recording. The person needing translation to buy roses? None of those feel grounded in reality. It's like they are building tech for made up in corporate conference room use cases.

New comment by randomname4325 in "Snap breaks into 'startup squads' as ad revenue stalls"

randomname4325 — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 03:15:32 +0000

Every time I read about a big publicly traded company say something "we're like a startup" I just LOL. Startups win by doing something really disruptive that actually works. You only hear about extreme success. Most things fail. If SNAP allowed each startup squad (10 users) to actually operate like a startup, they'd launch 500 unique disruptive features per month, every month until they hit a growth curve. I'm skeptical that's actually happening.

New comment by randomname4325 in "996"

randomname4325 — Sat, 06 Sep 2025 22:42:54 +0000

I don't personally have any regrets, because I'm that kinda person. But there are people who prioritized travel, dating, health and personal experiences who have better stories from that period than I do knocking out bugs or shipping a feature that no one ever used. I bought into the mission of the founder. Sure he remembered me when he saw me, but I doubt he thought of me once in the period in between. I remember feeling pretty disappointed after that encounter. Like I bought in, put in the work, it didn't work out and the guy that I followed didn't even remember my name. Prior to that encounter I shared that experience as a badge of honor. After reading this thread and posting here I can't help but think what a waste of time...

New comment by randomname4325 in "Zuckerberg Caught in Revealing Hot Mic Moment During White House Dinner"

randomname4325 — Sat, 06 Sep 2025 16:58:52 +0000

This is wild. Meta, OpenAI, MSFT, Nvidia are collectively keeping the AI trade alive, which is propping up the stock market and overall perception of the economy. This admission makes it clear that the AI spends are being made up not based on business value/demand...