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I looked into this a few years ago when I was trying to see if we were really in the worst housing market ever, and came to the opposite conclusion. https://arriens.us/articles/housing.html

You can get a pretty good idea of frequency, depth of flicker, and if the LED’s colors are flickering in sync from this, and I can confirm that Philips LEDs, specifically the EyeComfort series, are good.

"All failure is shear failure" - this is a simple explanation of Tresca's Yield Criterion. For materials with higher compressive than tensile strength, the equivalent is the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_failure_theory

Loom EGA/VGA Comparison https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26445522 - March 2021 (77 comments)

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43828604

Points: 3

# Comments: 1

Contrast it with a calculator like this [0] that uses combines historical return and inflation data with actuarial data to show the variance of outcomes, not just average returns.

For instance, your calculator shows a scenario of investing in bitcoin and withdrawing >20% of your portfolio every year which makes zero sense once you account for variance of returns.

I like the idea of tontines, I'm glad someone is trying to bring them back, and I don't doubt that your product could help with longevity risk, but I haven't seen anything so far that actually shows that.

I'd like to see actual results from backtesting, or a prediction that takes risk into account, not just a fixed return.

[0]https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

If you're familiar with the early retirement community, the simplest strategy is withdrawing a fixed percentage of your initial retirement portfolio, adjusting for inflation every year. For an 100% equities portfolio, these are the odds of success over a 30 or 60 year horizon[0] when backtested against Shiller's total real return data from 1871-2018

4%/30 year: 97%

4%/60 year: 89%

3%/30 year: 100%

3%/60 year: 100%

Hence my comment about spending a little less or saving more - 4% to 3% makes a massive difference in success rates. I'm sure you've done some backtesting of your offerings, and hopefully would be able to share some withdrawal amount vs success rate comparison, even if it's not an identical time period/comparison.

[0]https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/14/the-ultimate-guide...

Most of the interesting math happened at the margin: you’ve got just enough money that you could retire, but you’re susceptible to risk of a market crash in the first few years of retirement or an abnormally long life expectancy combined with a middling market.

Tontines fascinated me as an interesting piece of the puzzle for those who don’t plan on leaving an inheritance, and I’ve reread this guide[0] a few times - but ultimately it’s just another way to possibly move the margin a little bit, and the real solution is to save a little bit more, then spend a little bit less.

[0]https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/sites/default/files/-/media/doc...

https://samkriss.substack.com/p/a-users-guide-to-the-zairja-...

https://samkriss.substack.com/p/the-cacophony

The second one is a bit closer to touching on the same themes, but both are a little more allegorical than TFA.

https://radioshackcatalogs.com/science_fair_kits.htm

I had the 130-in-1. Yesterday, I was thinking about it for probably the first time in 20+ years - what a coincidence that this link popped up today. I was a bit too young to actually learn much from it beyond the basics, but I remember having a lot of fun with #85, the "Falling Bomb Sound".