Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43752118

Points: 1

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Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42142105

Points: 1

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Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40367743

Points: 35

# Comments: 21

https://apolloweather.com/

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36813541

Points: 2

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For me the most important thing is not the accuracy but having easier access to certain metrics to make better decisions. Feels Like and wind are a priority for me. Also UV Index during summer (I live in Florida). I want to know the best days to ride. I also want to know if I should use a thermal base layer or leg warmers. I’m willing to accept some discomfort during the first hour if it will get warmer later. Some rain is acceptable when is warmer. No rain is acceptable when its cold.

Will I have a headwind on the way back? Then I should manage my energy better during the first half.

As long as I see the big picture quickly for the whole week, I’m Ok with accuracy being less than perfect.

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31583590

Points: 2

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Even if it sounds cruel. With enough time and hard work, you can train yourself to detect the pigs getting slaughtered by the professional traders and take a bite of the action. That's what swing trading is all about.

That being said, it's far from easy. It requires a lot of hard work and determination. Reading books is a good start. The book "Trading Your Way to Financial Freedom" by Dr. Van K. Tharp is required for any modern day trader. The most important lesson from the book is probably that you have to always go into a trade knowing how much you are willing to loose on that trade. Using a stop and respecting it should be deeply engraved into your DNA.

But reading books is not enough. Getting a proper trading education is important. The average trading course will cost you anywhere from $2,000 to $5,000. With so many get-rich-quick schemes on the Internet is hard to find a serious an respected trading education program. They are out there. A good place to start would be Trader Planet. They have a list of the Top Trading Schools.

Why pay so much for a trading course? Because in the long term it will save you time and money. In the book "How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market" by Nicolas Darvas. The author spent many years of failure paying tuition to the markets until he found his way. Many people read this book and get fascinated by the big number. The fascinating part about the book is that in the 1940s and 1950s this guy created his own form of pseudo technical analysis. That system is what made him the $2,000,000. He spent a lot of time an money developing the system and eventually worked out for him. Keep in mind that Moving Averages started to get used in trading in the 1960s (If I'm not mistaken).

The moral of the story is that spending $2,000 or $3,000 in advance for a proper trading education will save you a lot of time and money.

People with little or no trading experience should not be developing mechanical systems and use them to risk real money. Wanna do it for educational purposes, sure go ahead, but don't risk any money. That shouldn't stop you from diving into the markets though. Once the market bug bites you there's no turning back. You just have to do it the old fashion way. In my case, by reading charts. As a software developer I think technical analysis is the only way to study the markets because that's how my brain is wired.

Think about it, you see a 3 day rally with wide range bars and on day 4 you get a narrow range bar where the open and close are the same (or very close). What does that tell you? Momentum has stopped and people are undecided. There’s nothing subjective about that. After this the stock can move either way, but you are getting an indicator that something’s going to happen and you have to monitor closely. You can tighten the stops or exit completely. The decision is up to you. But you are using the chart to make an educated decision.

Another example, after a 3 day pullback on day 4 you see a narrow range bar with a very long tail. This is called a Hammer [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hammer_(candlestick_pattern)]. This tells you that at some point during the day the sellers were in control but something happened and buyers took control and raised the price. This was a war and the buyers won. This usually changes momentum and leads to a rally. An explanation for this could be that at some point during the day many stop loss orders from long term investors were triggered and short-term buyers see it as an opportunity to buy and raise the price.

I just gave you two examples where Technical Analysis can be effective. Does it work all the time? Of course not. But you have a better picture of what’s happening, therefore your odds are higher and you can use this information to lower your risk.

Finally, you have to remember that for every buyer there’s also a seller and vice versa. When you buy a stock (long) you have to ask yourself. Is the person selling me the stock profiting or taking a loss? Is the other person a beginner, professional trader or institution? You have to find scenarios where you buy the stock from the beginners taking a loss (even if it sounds cruel). Given enough time and hard work you can develop experience necessary to spot where all these people buy and sell and use this information to your advantage.

Does it work all the time? NO

Will you have losses? YES

Can you still make money? YES