Starship becomes “fully and rapidly reusable”, needing little to no refurbishment between launches. Then the lower bound of launch costs is just the expendables (methane, oxygen, nitrogen) which could cost as little as $1M per launch.

SpaceX uses custom silicon (produced by “TeraFab”) that can run at higher temperatures then the radiative cooling requirements goes down significantly and a 100 kW satellite might weight around 1 ton.

Starship should be able to launch at least 100T payload. Assuming they could fit that many, that puts the launch cost per 100 kW at $10,000, which is a rounding error compared to the cost of the chips alone, even if it’s off by a factor of 10.

Obviously a lot needs to go right for this to happen, but it’s not impossible.

I know very little about this but sense that some combination of buzzwords like homomorphic encryption, zk-snarks, and yes, blockchains could be useful.

Of course this would present problems if any of your identities were ever compromised and your reputation destroyed.

I think that named lasted about 24 hours, but it was long enough to spawn MoltBook.

Starlink is growing rapidly.

Starship has been making steady progress.

Neuralink is helping ~12 real people with spinal cord injuries/ALs.

Optimus seems to be making progress.

Tesla is beginning to roll out robotaxis without safety drivers.

These satellites will be in a sun-synchronous orbit, so only close to any given location on Earth for a fraction of the day.

"We specialize in making the impossible merely late"

Still there will be a lot of engineering problems to solve.

2-3 years seems very short, but 10 years seems long to me.