Hacker News: rodonn

New comment by rodonn in "Timestral: Mistral's time-series foundation models"

rodonn — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 23:30:39 +0000

You can't easily evaluate the success of any single forecast, but as soon as you have a collection of forecasts there are a lot of ways to evaluate which forecasters are more accurate and which are well calibrated in their predictions.

For example you can look at the calibration of the forecasts: Take all the outcomes where you estimated ~10% probability. How many of them actually happened? If you are an well-calibrated forecaster, the actual number should be fairly close to 10%.

Brier Score:

New comment by rodonn in "OpenAI expands ChatGPT ads with Sponsored Agents"

rodonn — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:40:48 +0000

I agree that it won't be an unbiased source of information, but should be roughly same level of trustworthiness as clicking on the link and reading the information on the advertiser's website.

New comment by rodonn in "OpenAI expands ChatGPT ads with Sponsored Agents"

rodonn — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:39:48 +0000

I totally agree about the subscription being worth it for most heavy users, but there are a lot of people in the developing world for whom $20/month is hard to stomach. I think it's good that those people have an option to get more access to AI with lower out of pocket price.

New comment by rodonn in "OpenAI expands ChatGPT ads with Sponsored Agents"

rodonn — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:37:48 +0000

Yeah, basically this. Some people really do click on ads that are relevant to their interests and might want to learn more or be able to ask questions about the product. I'm not confident about how well it will work in practice, but I could imagine cases where this would be more helpful than clicking on the ad link and needing to explore the resulting website to find the information I want.

New comment by rodonn in "Data centers have hiked electricity prices on the public by $23B"

rodonn — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 03:54:06 +0000

The challenge is timing. Power is a relatively low share of the cost of a modern data center, but the length of time it takes for approvals and construction for solar means it would substantially slow down the construction vs. using grid+natural gas turbines which are faster to build and get approval for.

I'm 100% on board with charging data centers more for their power usage. They can afford to pay the extra costs. They would much rather pay in dollars vs. in time.

New comment by rodonn in "If you are asking for human attention, demonstrate human effort"

rodonn — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 02:48:50 +0000

The problem is that I don't know before I read a doc whether or not it will be useful and valuable.

If someone wants me to spend my time and attention on something they have shared, I would like them to demonstrate that they put a proportionate amount of time and effort into its production.

New comment by rodonn in "OpenAI resets spending expectations, from $1.4T to $600B"

rodonn — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 04:59:24 +0000

"profitable on inference" means "marginal costs of inference are lower than revenue". It is very common to distinguish between upfront costs vs. marginal costs when judging the economic viability of a business.

You mention "debt servicing", but OpenAI has no debt. All the money they have raised is equity not debt.

New comment by rodonn in "OpenAI resets spending expectations, from $1.4T to $600B"

rodonn — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 04:56:26 +0000

There's been a huge amount of improvement in coding agent effectiveness since they ran that experiment. In a more recent follow up experiment, METR found 20% speed up from AI assistance and says they believe that is likely an underestimate of the impact. https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/

They are working on making a new measurement approach that will be more accurate.

New comment by rodonn in "Sora 2"

rodonn — Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:15:58 +0000

You can use the "cameo" feature only with users who have gone through the cameo creation flow. Sama has an account and created a cameo likeness of himself. When you create your cameo you can choose who is allowed to make videos using it: "only me", "people I approve", "mutuals", or "everyone".

New comment by rodonn in "ChatGPT Pulse"

rodonn — Fri, 26 Sep 2025 15:34:05 +0000

That's hiring for a role buying ads, not selling ads. i.e. this is ChatGPT buying ads on other platforms to promote ChatGPT.

New comment by rodonn in "GPT-5"

rodonn — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:50:35 +0000

Yes they do: https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1ljery5/gemini_just...

New comment by rodonn in "Meta invests $14.3B in Scale AI to kick-start superintelligence lab"

rodonn — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 18:19:24 +0000

The Clayton act explicitly includes partial acquisition as still being covered. "No person engaged in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce shall acquire, directly or indirectly, the whole or any part of the stock... [where] the effect of such acquisition may be substantially to lessen competition, or to tend to create a monopoly."

There may be some other regulations that are avoided by a partial acquisition, but it doesn't bring it wholly outside of the relevant antitrust laws.

New comment by rodonn in "Meta invests $14.3B in Scale AI to kick-start superintelligence lab"

rodonn — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 18:16:27 +0000

It might reduce scrutiny, but not completely prevent it. Clayton act says "No person engaged in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce shall acquire, directly or indirectly, the whole or any part of the stock or other share capital and no person subject to the jurisdiction of the Federal Trade Commission shall acquire the whole or any part of the assets of another person engaged also in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce, where in any line of commerce or in any activity affecting commerce in any section of the country, the effect of such acquisition may be substantially to lessen competition, or to tend to create a monopoly."

New comment by rodonn in "How to Run DeepSeek R1 671B Locally on a $2000 EPYC Server"

rodonn — Sat, 01 Feb 2025 20:32:26 +0000

Depends on where you live. The average in San Francisco is $0.29 per kWh.

New comment by rodonn in "Ozempic and Wegovy are selected for Medicare's price negotiations"

rodonn — Fri, 17 Jan 2025 18:05:06 +0000

These drugs (mostly) don't allow you to eat more unhealthy food, instead they make it easier to have the self control to avoid over eating / choose healthier foods.

New comment by rodonn in "Iron Gall Ink"

rodonn — Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:28:39 +0000

Iron Gall ink was used on both the Magna Carta and the Declaration of Independence. It can last for many centuries, unfortunately it can fade if exposed to strong sunlight, which is why the declaration of independence is so faded. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3206_charters.html

New comment by rodonn in "Apple found in breach of EU competition rules"

rodonn — Mon, 24 Jun 2024 20:12:34 +0000

The profit maximizing price after a 30% cut `q(price) * (price - 30%price)` is not the same as the profit maximizing price without that cut `q(price) price`.

As long as the demand curve is downward sloping, there will be some pass through of Apple's cut to customers, though the fraction that is passed through will depend on price elasticity.

New comment by rodonn in "Roku files patent to inject ads via HDMI"

rodonn — Sat, 06 Apr 2024 04:10:28 +0000

This is why targeted advertising is so much more effective than un-targeted. On Facebook/Instagram I frequently see ads for products I was not aware of that are relevant to my interests.

New comment by rodonn in "Polars"

rodonn — Tue, 09 Jan 2024 15:57:59 +0000

If you prefer dplyr syntax you can use https://tidypolars.etiennebacher.com/

New comment by rodonn in "Polars"

rodonn — Tue, 09 Jan 2024 15:56:44 +0000

I haven't run into any friction for (1), since worst case you just call `.to_pandas()` at the end of your pipeline before you start plotting. For any plotting apis that rely on the direct column vectors, no conversion to pandas is required.