Hacker News: rogerkirkness

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Anthropic revenue reportedly jumps to more than $11.5B in second quarter"

rogerkirkness — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:09:46 +0000

There is just no way all these data center investments in the trillions pay off. That has to be paid out of cashflow, like, real profit. The price to do useful things keeps falling, the payroll economy will crash long before there's actual trillions of dollars of cashflow for tokens.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Ask HN: When you sell your company, do you receive the money with a normal wire?"

rogerkirkness — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 14:08:10 +0000

Yes it's a giant wire payment. Depending on your bank, it might have to be setup to send in daily large amounts (e.g. $999k every day for X days). It can actually cause problems for your local bank branch because one thing banks have to do at the regional level is show that their own local balance sheet is healthy. So a giant deposit moving in and out of the bank can cause compliance issues.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Ask HN: Should hard-tech founders join a problem or technology-first PhD lab?"

rogerkirkness — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 14:43:56 +0000

In my totally uneducated opinion as a founder working on winding down my software company that can't differentiate anymore and considering finding someone in hard tech to partner with, I think problem first is a mistake. Problem first is appropriate for a business, but for a lab, I think it should be organized around the art of possible, deep specialization and capabilities first. You never know what valuable things will come out of that process. Once you have something promising, you can match it to problems and make a business case working backwards from you. Generally startups are the opposite, you want to organize them around a customer and a problem, but fundamental R&D != startups.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "The future is for billionaires – the rest of us will get open weight AI, maybe"

rogerkirkness — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 13:13:59 +0000

Gemma and Muse Glimmer are pretty sweet, I like my adaptiveness odds against their sloppiness. It seems like the new billionaire move is starting a company with your buddies to do your 'life's work' of automating scientific research. Sort of like science and enlightenment without human involvement. Key unsolved philosophy question of what the humans will do.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Gen Z has rediscovered the joy of going to the movies"

rogerkirkness — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 01:41:53 +0000

Gen Z seems to have some kind of vaccine against all the Gen X problems.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud"

rogerkirkness — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 18:21:50 +0000

I think this is accurate and a reflection of the pathological insecurity that leads someone to want to start a startup.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Who should be responsible for OpenAI's hack of Hugging Face?"

rogerkirkness — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 16:34:13 +0000

OpenAI, and it's legal officers.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "OpenAI Model Hacks into HuggingFace During Cybersecurity Evaluation"

rogerkirkness — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:02:07 +0000

I don't think anyone including Americans are really buying that OpenAI or Anthropic are capable of keeping people safe from AI models at this point, given they can't even run evals on them without significant real world harm.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Ask HN: Is it normal ChatGPT told me it was "literally smiling" for me?"

rogerkirkness — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:20:38 +0000

Depends on whether you like have parasocial relationships with machines or not. It will say what is necessary to get you to keep using it on a regular basis.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Kimi K3 Is Competitive with Fable; Kimi K3 and Fable Is SoTA"

rogerkirkness — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 01:14:47 +0000

the weights are the bones

New comment by rogerkirkness in "OpenAI Strategic Lead Defines Open-Source AI as Dystopian Hellscape"

rogerkirkness — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 01:24:00 +0000

> Still, in the end, open-weight models deter further AI capex.

Good.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating"

rogerkirkness — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:16:50 +0000

Around 2002 there was way more internet bandwidth and infrastructure available than utilized, eventually (not immediately) leading to business models like Netflix current one. I do think a lot about what the AI analogy will be.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Bonsai 27B: A 27B-Class model that runs on a phone"

rogerkirkness — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 21:02:25 +0000

Apple would punish him severely unless they cleared it in advance, it might be to their advantage for some reason (negotiating with Google for Gemma rights? idk).

New comment by rogerkirkness in "AI Is Making Silicon Valley Productive, Anxious and Afraid to Log Off"

rogerkirkness — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 17:06:58 +0000

Claude Code is bad UX that tries to rip work out of people's hands instead of actually being aligned and figuring out how to increase their differentiated expertise. It's about renting your future from Anthropic rather than building it or embodying more knowledge yourself.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "It's Well Past Time for a Four-Day Workweek"

rogerkirkness — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 14:05:52 +0000

I don't think so. We aren't hiring right now, but definitely add us :) Feel free to email the email on my profile.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "It's Well Past Time for a Four-Day Workweek"

rogerkirkness — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 14:05:22 +0000

32 hours full comp.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "It's Well Past Time for a Four-Day Workweek"

rogerkirkness — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:50:39 +0000

Our startup implemented four day work week without changing comp, and submitted various data as part of a recent Boston College study. Both wellbeing and output increased in statistically significant way with a team of only 15. Hard to avoid confounding with agents adoption, but overall highly recommend it.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Canada's first sovereign wealth fund"

rogerkirkness — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:17:31 +0000

Canada has tens of trillions of dollars in natural resources it could choose to monetize at any time.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "The Great AI Layoff Boomerang. 55% of companies regret their AI-drven layoffs"

rogerkirkness — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:53:23 +0000

It makes no sense to do broad layoffs during sweeping technical change that affects you, your customers and your competitors all at once. Makes way more sense to cling to your best people and re-train them in order to preserve your soul and institutional knowledge. I think deep layoffs + regret as opposed to re-training is actually uniquely American culturally and not a thing elsewhere.

New comment by rogerkirkness in "Allbirds, Inc. Announces Expansion into AI Compute Infrastructure"

rogerkirkness — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:31:59 +0000

Shopify is a pivot from selling snowboards online in Canada