"What can you use it for?" "Uhh....yes, asking investors for more money"

I think the issues are:

1) that timeline has to line up with the broader macroeconomic factors (unlikely imo)

2) anthropic/openai/etc have to actually capture the value (unlikely given deepseek/glm/etc)

3) for all jobs to be automated, there needs to be a huge shift in the social contract and welfare state, which requires competent and functioning government (lol) and taxes on destruction of labor rather than labor itself (lmao) otherwise you get millions of unemployed people and a deeply unstable society, and a lot of blown up datacenters.

I think the value of AI is unlike anything that has come before, I just don't think the big players will necessarily be the ones capturing it. There will be a lot of spectacular implosions over the next couple years, and AI will continue to march along.

Tesla has very different reasons for doing what they did on the cybertruck. It's very much a form over function. Lotus has always been function over form (to a fault, in terms of their financial position).

I'm still gainfully employed, and business is ripping, but a huge part of my value as a professional got totally vaporized over the last year. So part of me is extremely glad I don't have kids right now, and part of me is really angry that everything feeling so unstable is leading to our decision to not have them. I know that even in the best time it's a scary decision, but the general vibe is flipping people (like my wife and i) who are at the margin.

Government is not a borg. We elected the dumbest motherfucker in the country, he consolidated power, and we got incredibly inflationary (among other things...) policies. Local government is just along for the ride.

My wife is tired of this joke.

I think there probably is some value in vibecoding TLA specs and not actually understanding the invariants yourself, but it's way oversold by the talking heads of the tech world, and the gaps need to be filled in some other way if you refuse to write your own code.

> I don't think anything here is new or changed

I would argue it's a little new though. I used to write dumb little programs all the time that explored an idea which was probably bad, and in that exploration I often found that there was a better way to do it, or that I didn't know as much as I thought I did, or that another thing already existed that was much better considered than my half baked idea, etc. But there was learning that happened there, so the process was still valuable. Now you can get a working bad idea without learning anything, there is full conservation of ignorance, but a full dopamine hit from "i made this thing". I guess you could argue it's just everything happening at a faster rate, but it feels different to me, and it is pretty eerie.