I'm sorry, but no, this is just absolutely wrong.

If everyone was making these predictions, in good-faith, then yes it would "provide us with a dynamic mechanism to predict future outcomes from complicated systems." However, when truckloads of money is involved, then insiders actually want to have the markets be weighted incorrectly to maximize gain at exactly the point where vega and theta are minimized... at the very last second possible.

Market reflexivity exists and undermines this entire thesis. People need to stop pretending everyone out there is a nice man like Nate Siver just doing this for fun. As long as insiders exist and are allowed to trade, then they have every incentive to induce misinformation until the very last moment when they can trade against it.

The future of everything is lies... sure, well so was the past, what's your point?

When we say "snake oil salesmen" we literally had people selling these mineral oils, fraudulently, for a century. People yearn for a time when there wasn't an antagonistic relationship between buyer and seller, but it has never existed. There is only one way have that relationship, and it's by having a personal -- repeatable -- relationship with your seller, and that's usually expensive, even if that expense is not monetary. It just the game theory of repeated games.

The easiest way to establish this behavior is to be a regular at a bar while being a good patron that creates a positive experience for everyone else. There are multiple places I frequent where I have no doubt in my mind that if there was an emergency, they might ask me to help out in some way because I'm trustworthy. And they could hand me an envelope of money, knowing I'd not steal it, because it's not worth it for me to take a bit of money and ruin my welcome at this place.

That's not going to happen with online sellers, and it's not going to happen with most corporations. The promise was always "save money through economies of scale, such that you still win even though there is no relationship." For the most part, that's proven true. But as everything has been outsourced to China, and anyone can make a basic version of everything, we're running up against the limits of those benefits. And I truly believe that brands are going to start mattering a lot more going forward for marketplaces.

Shop at Costco because they care about their customers. In other areas where companies don't, you're going to have to do the legwork to find out who is going to treat you right. That sucks, and it'll probably be more expensive, but that's the antagonistic relationship that buyers and sellers have naturally. Regulation helps, yes, but it's not some cure all. The expectation that you can just go with the person with the lowest price and get quality services is not a thing that's every existed.

Religious institutions had some access to legitimate violence in a way that the state couldn’t control. Once authoritarianism gave way to more democratic governance, that effectively disappeared.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fist%2C_Stick%2C_Knife%2C_Gun

People become okay with vigilante justice when they see the executive branch as compromised, just look at the insane plot/ending of the film Singham.

Many people see this happening in the US. We should expect to see more vigilante justice and organized crime if we see the executive branch as having a significant principal-agent problem.

– Las Vegas

AI research is for research, not for blindly accepting. If you’re looking for Truth you need to institute a gatekeeper that does that homework for you.

I thought it was a website that should exist during the pandemic, so I built it. It’s been slowly growing ever since, because most of the time you really only need to add the info once.

The community is a heck of a lot poorer now because they were convinced to offer incentives for a factory that never came. Once these firms can dangle hope in return for tax treatment or infrastructure, then you have a zero-sum game between townships where the winner — if there is a winner — ends up being the firm first, and the loser — if there is a loser, will be the township first.

The entire point is to invite/allow otherwise “good” people to be able to think it’s not entirely serious, and that caring is pearl-clutching and is lame.

That way they can vote for their tax cuts, wear their “team” colors, and keep voting for “their” party.

It happens with successful sports teams all the time. Tiger Woods just got in his fourth (likely under the influence) car wreck, and sports media is already making excuses or talking about how hard he must have it. It’s the same process.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Semite_and_Jew

The cynicism of residents is reasonable. They've have to be highly educated to actually understand the implications of what they're doing and how that revenue can be distributed. America's decline lends itself toward small-town corruption, where patronage is more important than communitarianism, due to large and accelerating net worth inequality, and an economy where outcomes are based on inheritance over labor.

This explains the logic behind an outright ban. You don't have to be vigilant about corruption and the principle-agent problem if the thing is just banned.

My point is that the entire premise of "why it's ackchyually good though" is wrong. The thesis is that the markets let intelligent agents flourish, adding value to the real world. When really, the insiders can be idiots and still win.

We gain no new information because the insider has every incentive to hold off on their move until the very last minute, maximally reducing the effects of theta and vega, to maximize profit. This adds little to no practical information to the market while potentially removing super-predictors from the market.

It just becomes a vehicle for insider-trading, so make that illegal, cancellable, or just get rid of the market altogether.

Having any uncertainty market where insider information is not considered cheating is a complete waste of time. The insiders will always win, everyone else will slowly lose even if they are smart as hell.

Just imagine playing poker at a table where one in a thousand people can see all the hole cards. The entire game is for them to wait you to put all your money on the table when they already know the winning move. Even if you can win enough to stay in the game, they can take you for everything in one play when you get something wrong that you were very certain of.

I mean there is no world policeman that’s going to stop Trump. While I agree with you on the practicality of the situation, we have been on tenterhooks all day exactly because Trump can dramatically escalate this if he wants. It’s just that that escalation will be extremely painful in all sorts of ways, especially if Iran wipes out the oil production infrastructure.

My point here isn’t to “pick a side.” I obviously think this whole escapade was unwise. My point is only to point out that the bargaining frictions point to continuing the conflict.

Iran is happier to delay because the oil crisis is about to hit America. Trump is happy to delay because he can always launch a strike tomorrow, and concessions via existing infrastructure breakdown, or improve his position with intelligence, and this may prevent a more serious oil crisis.

That means both parties see opportunity in maintaining the status quo.

My point is that their demands are not realistic. That the can has been kicked is good for Iran, it's also good for Trump. Conflict here is bad for both parties, the problem is there I currently don't see a way to step back from the precipice at this point.

"What Causes Wars: An Introduction to Crisis Bargaining Theory", by William Spaniel, PHD and professor, specializing in game-theory and specifically crisis bargaining theory: https://youtu.be/xjKVcl_lDfo?si=NFHvjOdWbLbPOOvA

I would obviously leave if it were feasible at this point, but getting a visa not at all trivial. I just don't know how to deal with the fact that this country is in the toilet... like not "governed by a party I don't like" but "governed by genuine nutjobs that have no concern for the future of the country." I protested. I volunteered. I donated money. I phone banked, yet here we are. It's a waking nightmare at this point.

I imagine this is what it feels like to have been a liberal in St Petersburg watching Putin or in Milan watching Berlusconi slowly consolidate power. It's just a slow motion car crash and you can see it's only going to get worse, but there's nowhere to go because the English-speaking world isn't exactly trying to help Americans who might want to leave. The best visa there is is with the Netherlands, and I've considered it, but the window on that is closing rapidly.