Nations have established middle grounds for gambling. To gamble, drive a couple of hours down to an exempt casino and set fire to your money if you so wish. Bootleg operations are permitted as long as they stay low. Prostitution has similar regulations. Sports betting, Onlyfans & Prediction markets remove those necessary frictions from each vice, preying on men (it's mostly men) at their most vulnerable.

Prediction markets : gambling :: weed : cigarettes

Garry Tan has been the primary crusader for AI driven decision making. I'm sure his position is more nuanced, but his twitter driven communication makes him appear like a caricature of a man in AI psychosis.

When the head of YC champions AI driven decision making, companies will inevitably be influenced into doing exactly that. It's unfortunate, because AI is generational technology and the hyperbole distracts from the real sea change occuring in labor markets everywhere.

Youtube, Gmail, Search, Maps, Android, Devices, Photos and Drive are how they get the data to make money on ads. Cloud, Android & Youtube would be a 2 trillion dollar company even without Google. They don't make money on these, because they don't need to make money on it.

Google, MSFT and Apple do a lot more and most of their products have large feature backlogs.

Different scenarios

I am surprised that Microsoft's own copilot product is so far behind though.

Great works of art are meant to be religious experiences. At Falling water, every part of the house & estate feels like it was meant to be there. The shapes and curves feel so right. The emphasis on integrating natural materials makes it feel one with nature. Frank Lloyd wright cared a lot about sight lines, which makes every space easy on the eyes.

I've had similar experiences in great Basilicas[0] such as Sagrada Familia[1]. Smaller objects have evoked similar feelings too. Be that cars (The Ferrari Roma[2] or Alfa 33 Stadale[3]) or intricate jewelery (Earrings [4] or watches [5]). Great beauty feels divine, and Fallingwater is one such example.

[0] Special shout-out to the new Romanesque basilica in DC - https://maps.app.goo.gl/8r59NzbgVnqKYAv2A

[1] https://thebarcelonafeeling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/S...

[2] https://media.architecturaldigest.com/photos/5f96f18f0a2396c...

[3] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Alfa_Rom...

[4] https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/39320

[5] https://www.watchclub.com/upload/watches/gallery_big/watch-c...

I don't buy it. The leaked emails and actions of OpenAI's leadership point to a cynical growth machine.

The winner of this AI cycle will fund the lobbies that decide the politics of the future. OpenAI gives me a 'must escape the permanent underclass' energy. Not the energy I want from possibly the most influential people of the near future.

We are 50 years into post-modernism. Can't imagine it can get any more important.

I predict emergent design will be the next big thing. Czinger[1] is a great example of what it may look like. Rick Ruben-esque world, where the creator is more a guide.

[1] Czinger uses stochastic optimization to converge to designs - https://www.czinger.com/iconic-design

Once Elon put himself at the epicenter of American political life, Tesla stopped being treated as a brand, and more a placeholder for Elon himself.

Waymo has excellent branding and first to market advantage in defining how self-driving is perceived by users. But, the alternative being Elon's Tesla further widens the perception gap.

Europe is cheaper and more fun. America's one advantage: nature, is matched and at times exceeded by Canada. Flights to warm places like Miami and SD take just as long as Mexico or the Caribbean.

Other than NYC and Utah-area national parks, I can't think of unique reasons for Canadians to vacation in the US specifically.

Electronics and code ruined replaced pure mechanics. Components aren't physically maintainable or hot-swappable, because they aren't just physically connected.

Second is that maintenance is how dealerships make money, so there is a monetary incentive to make it seem esoteric.

For your purposes, the upcoming slate truck is closest analogue - https://www.slate.auto/en

Now NYC is a over-regulated mess that faces gridlock from both unions and the state representatives. In practice, it makes the NYC mayor a cog-in-the-machine. The real task for a NYC mayor is consensus building first, and allocation of funds second.

There's a tendency to start calling them 'western medicine' and crediting it to the person who formalized it in the west rather than the source culture where it has existed for centuries.

The conversation is bit 2010, but the point still stands.

Unions sabotaged automation efforts and limited hours worked. Quarterly financial pressures kept research investments to a minimum. Nations refused to scale up nuclear, and cost of electricity kept rising. The one well-run EV company (Tesla) decided to destroy its brand value overnight. Toyota went on a pig-headed hydrogen tangent and Honda still hasn't tried to make an EV. Korea has done surprisingly well. But, they're the exception that proves the rule.

China's rise as a manufacturing superpower was inevitable. But its rise as an automotive superpower involved major capitulation by the primary competition.

Top engineering grads are excellent and are being paid high wages. Work culture is cut-throat, but talent is comparable to the US.

India's target universities (IITs, IIITs & NITs) produce ~40k new software-engineers every year. Historically, average graduates of these universities end up in FANG jobs after their masters. If not immediately, then within a few years.

We're not talking about the 1 million sub-par engineering grads produced by India every year, most of whom will end up at infosys, TCS or sadly, BPOs. Big-tech only cares about the top 50k.

This the primary group that American new-grads are competing with. Around 20k new Indians get an H1b every-year as part of an OPT (Masters) to H1b transition. For every 1 of them in the US, there is at least 1 back home of the same caliber.

Bangladesh would be at risk because the Bramhaphtra sees upstream fresh water use by China. But China's use of Bramhaputra water is mostly energy related, not for drinking water or irrigation.

If decreasing population trends continue then this problem will solve itself.

Polar and Continental regions will get greener at the expense of the tropical and equatorial regions.

Mass migration is the inevitable conclusion of uneven impacts of climate change. Ie. In 2026, Political climate and physical climate are moving in mutually incompatible directions.