Hacker News: sfblah

New comment by sfblah in "Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe"

sfblah — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 05:48:10 +0000

No matter how researchers measure this, people on the left will always say they didn't do it properly. I'm personally satisfied that the work that has been done is "good enough" to establish reasonable baselines for many, and maybe most, countries.

New comment by sfblah in "Gemini 4 Argon"

sfblah — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:38:04 +0000

Will the revenue stream last once people start pivoting their search volume in earnest across to LLMs? I basically never use Google search anymore.

New comment by sfblah in "Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe"

sfblah — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 23:54:41 +0000

No serious person in the field thinks this. Do some research.

New comment by sfblah in "Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe"

sfblah — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:53:25 +0000

It's because it's inconvenient to discuss. What you said is the actual truth.

New comment by sfblah in "Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe"

sfblah — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:53:06 +0000

No serious person in the field agrees with this.

New comment by sfblah in "Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe"

sfblah — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:52:21 +0000

Don't Finland, China and Singapore have the highest IQs of any countries? Why can't that be the answer? To me, what you do exactly in school is likely pretty secondary.

New comment by sfblah in "GPT-6 Sol and Luna"

sfblah — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 22:55:56 +0000

Yep. We just switched several classification jobs we run over to gpt-6 luna. Love the cost savings.

New comment by sfblah in "Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers"

sfblah — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 16:53:00 +0000

I don't actually think this interpretation is correct. ZIRP was the government printing money and buying bonds off the market. I think it had more to do with velocity of money, which ordinarily would have been corrected through a recession, but the government prevented that, which will create a much bigger recession at some point in the future.

New comment by sfblah in "OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on ARC-AGI-3"

sfblah — Sat, 05 Sep 2026 21:31:53 +0000

IQ is not randomly distributed in heterogeneous populations. Do a little research, and you'll see what I mean.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Sat, 05 Sep 2026 21:30:37 +0000

I guarantee you that you do NOT know someone who tested B2 using an actual proctored Goethe Institute test, after only using DuoLingo.

> Why would I changed?

Exactly.

New comment by sfblah in "OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on ARC-AGI-3"

sfblah — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 22:22:23 +0000

To be fair, Mensa is a Venn diagram between IQ and being a douche.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:09:44 +0000

Look at GDP growth (it's not great). Where are the sales coming from? The modal revenue boost to Mag-7 companies since Covid has been a profitless tech firm wasting venture money whose source was debt enabled by low interest rates.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:29:17 +0000

I disagree. The massive divergence between US household income and European household income since 2009 tracks almost perfectly Fed interest-rate policy and government deficit spending.

The federal government has spent the time since 2009 lighting the furniture and the house on fire to support unsustainable increases in domestic standard of living by effectively mortgaging the future. The problem we have dwarfs anything that was happening during the Bush era.

Likely the difference between you and me is this: I'm 50 years old, already wealthy from tech, and planning to leave the US. You're probably still trying to earn your way. Sadly, I'm pretty sure we've pulled the ladder up, and folks like you are going to reap the whirlwind, as they say.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:25:59 +0000

I'll let you in on something. The "inexplicable" success is Fed interest-rate policy plus deficit spending.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:24:28 +0000

I speak 4 foreign languages, at (fully tested through exams like the DALF, DELE, Goethe Institute) levels of C2, C1, C1 and B2. Take an actual test proving your knowledge and get back to me.

I've spent a lot of time with Duolingo learners. They're all pre-A1. You're just lying to yourself to make yourself think your phone addiction isn't "that bad." Take a real language class.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:22:07 +0000

Agreed, but look at it the other way. Do you really think we'll never again have a recession? Some people genuinely believe that.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:21:41 +0000

Not completely. It just means you can have an AI do the useless busywork instead of a human. Something can be economically useful but still have proponents in a firm.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:44:13 +0000

In my experience, people who make fun of AI's ability to eliminate white-collar work are exactly the same people who are white-knuckling it, hoping they can make another $300k next year to buy that Rivian.

People who don't need a salary look at the situation more objectively and, in general, can see that a lot of white-collar work is in peril.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:42:03 +0000

Yes. I was specifically referring to Zitron's circular-financing complaints. I can't defend his separate claims that AI just isn't that useful. If he were involved in the tech industry, he'd know how preposterous those claims are.

New comment by sfblah in "How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?"

sfblah — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:40:59 +0000

I agree that the specific amounts invested in AI aren't enough to cause a calamity directly.

The problem is you have the vise of a stock-market decline on one side (something basically everyone thinks is impossible), and AI-induced unemployment on the other side (something a lot of commentators, including Zitron sometimes, seem to think won't happen). Those two things in tandem would be worse than 2009 by a multiple. I doubt the US government will be able to bail it out.