Hacker News: shapefrog

New comment by shapefrog in "Kelly Criterion Simulator"

shapefrog — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 22:02:33 +0000

Their estimates: Win probability 100% -- Odds / payout 100-1.

New comment by shapefrog in "The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)"

shapefrog — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 22:00:12 +0000

gell mann effect leads me to pay closer attention and then its game over

New comment by shapefrog in "Dario worried people were joining Anthropic for the money, not the mission"

shapefrog — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 18:20:27 +0000

Did he not notice that every CV listed the previous "mission" as reimagining money with shitcoins and NFTs?

New comment by shapefrog in "YC CEO says he ships 37K LoC AI code per day. A developer looked under the hood"

shapefrog — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 11:18:30 +0000

I thought you generally knew what you were talking about till i read this. Now I am wondering if you know anything at all.

New comment by shapefrog in "YC CEO says he ships 37K LoC AI code per day. A developer looked under the hood"

shapefrog — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:28:06 +0000

Garry is buying horses for all the defenders in this thread.

No he wont fund your startup.

New comment by shapefrog in "Car touchscreens are cheap, not good"

shapefrog — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:00:06 +0000

I think the reality is that it is harder to sell a subscription to a button than it is to software.

New comment by shapefrog in "How the U.S. Engineered Its Sovereignty"

shapefrog — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:40:24 +0000

I guess the same goes for why the Americans attempt export controls in 2026

New comment by shapefrog in "It's not about physical vs. digital games, it's about ownership"

shapefrog — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:30:59 +0000

Need to smear some A1 on those NFTs to get the job done properly.

New comment by shapefrog in "It's not about physical vs. digital games, it's about ownership"

shapefrog — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:28:54 +0000

> I am generally not in favor of adding regulation

Then let the market decide.

New comment by shapefrog in "It's not about physical vs. digital games, it's about ownership"

shapefrog — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:26:24 +0000

It is still, as far as I am aware, possible to steal a rental car.

New comment by shapefrog in "How the U.S. Engineered Its Sovereignty"

shapefrog — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:17:01 +0000

Kinda glossed over the whole IP theft industrial espionage thing.

Not at all ironic given the shrieking about China.

New comment by shapefrog in "Are DOGE's Claims of Social Security Payments to 150-Year-Olds Way Off Base?"

shapefrog — Sat, 15 Feb 2025 10:49:00 +0000

strangely, that is exactly how the system works.

New comment by shapefrog in "FBI has obtained 7k Lockbit ransomware decryption keys"

shapefrog — Thu, 06 Jun 2024 11:37:31 +0000

They are (subtly) saying cyber criminals are all from / in other countries.

New comment by shapefrog in "FBI raids Atlanta corporate landlord in probe of rental market price fixing"

shapefrog — Thu, 06 Jun 2024 11:35:42 +0000

It is very basic maths as well (that evades most small time landlords).

100% occupancy at 90% of the market price with high quality tenants makes you more money than 80% occupancy + agent advertising / finding fees at full market price with bad tenants.

New comment by shapefrog in "Is $203T in derivatives held by top banks causing an ‘everything bubble’?"

shapefrog — Fri, 23 Feb 2024 12:04:08 +0000

> everything bubble except gold , oil, and other commodities

and wages for everyday working joes

but Nvidia tho

New comment by shapefrog in "U.S. to invest billions to replace China-made cranes at nation's ports"

shapefrog — Fri, 23 Feb 2024 09:02:24 +0000

The rules are clear. There is one set for them and one set for us, we are afterall The Good Guys (tm)

New comment by shapefrog in "Stable Diffusion 3"

shapefrog — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:36:11 +0000

I think you are seeing things from a bubble.

Most people in the country dont give a shit about historical injustices and are worried about how they are going to pay their rent or put food on the table today.

New comment by shapefrog in "Stable Diffusion 3"

shapefrog — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:30:59 +0000

> What is it specifically that company management is worried about?

As with all hype techs, even the most talented management are barely literate in the product. When talking about their new trillion $ product they must take their talking points from the established literature and "fake it till they make it".

If the other big players say "billions of parameters" you chuck in as many as you can. If the buzz words are "tokens" you say we have lots of tokens. If the buzz words are "safety" you say we are super safe. You say them all and hope against hope that nobody asks a simple question you are not equipped to answer that will show you dont actually know what you are talking about.

New comment by shapefrog in "Plastic is taking over farms"

shapefrog — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:20:05 +0000

> Plastic is the foundation of so many aspects of modern life

I genuinely can not think of a single product that only exists thanks to plastic.

New comment by shapefrog in "Most UK firms stick with a four-day working week after trial"

shapefrog — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:02:48 +0000

From the original "experiment" https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/worlds-biggest-4-day-workwee...

The experiment uses a 100-80-100 model: workers get 100% of the pay for working 80% of the time in exchange for delivering 100% of their usual output.

Would only be assuming, however, given the success it would appear that it was achieved.

fwiw I do not think that I have encountered a "knowledge worker" who couldnt do 100% of their job in 80% of the time with minimal effort. Manual jobs / service jobs obviously different of course.