Hacker News: smokefoot

New comment by smokefoot in "IBM debuts sub-1 nanometer chip technology"

smokefoot — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:57:41 +0000

Which is so weird, right? Like what is IBM now and how does a research lab make sense with the rest of their business?

The money-making parts of IBM are: legacy software and hardware (declining), consulting (low margin, low leverage), enterprise software (mostly redhat, not really growing). It's hard to explain how IBM research is accretive to any of that.

New comment by smokefoot in "How to earn a billion dollars"

smokefoot — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 13:36:06 +0000

Um, did i just get mansplained compound interest by Paul f*ing Graham? I feel like this has been the subject of condescending advice since the beginning of time.

"But now you at least understand, from having done the math yourselves, that you don't have to cheat to become a billionaire. You've seen for yourselves that there are only two numbers in the calculation, the growth rate and how long it continues."

What could possibly be false in a two-parameter model of reality?

New comment by smokefoot in "Alibaba's new AI chip: Key specifications comparable to H20"

smokefoot — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 17:20:47 +0000

Or intel … but I think Samsung comes considerably closer. I’m not close to it.

New comment by smokefoot in "Alibaba's new AI chip: Key specifications comparable to H20"

smokefoot — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 11:34:48 +0000

I mean, I don’t know how long the NVIDIA moats can hold. With this much money at stake, others will challenge their dominance especially in a market as diverse and fragmented as advanced semiconductors.

That’s not to say I’m brave enough to short NVDA.

New comment by smokefoot in "Alibaba's new AI chip: Key specifications comparable to H20"

smokefoot — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 11:18:18 +0000

Chinese semiconductor dominance is not imminent and US containment has been somewhat effective. I don’t think that will hold on a generational timeline, but it will be hard to overcome.

New comment by smokefoot in "Journalism has become ground zero for the vocation crisis"

smokefoot — Thu, 04 Jul 2024 14:37:18 +0000

It’s pretty hard to quantify. Reading the tone of NYT headlines over the last 20 years, I observe a steady increase in side-taking on both sides of the newsroom. Those headlines and stories are empirically more engaging and the market values engagement above all else.

New comment by smokefoot in "The story, as best I can remember, of the origin of Mosaic and Netscape [video]"

smokefoot — Sat, 29 Jun 2024 23:41:15 +0000

Yeah, I mean I’m being negative but I enjoyed the video. I just found Ben’s whole line of questioning to be pandering and not a dialog (“why not MIT?”)

I had a similar experience with BBSs and I remember the romance of using a modem. I actually grew up in Champaign and recall dialing into “prairienet.” I also remember using AOL, but mostly to find and download games.

New comment by smokefoot in "The story, as best I can remember, of the origin of Mosaic and Netscape [video]"

smokefoot — Sat, 29 Jun 2024 01:55:58 +0000

What a circle jerk. I guess there aren’t successful people with any humility. But seriously, he just used his own podcast to feature himself!

New comment by smokefoot in "TSMC experimenting with rectangular wafers vs. round for more chips per wafer"

smokefoot — Sat, 22 Jun 2024 18:26:47 +0000

The industry moved to 300mm 25 years ago. It’s going to take a lot to get off that standard.

Also, round chambers for etch and deposition are good for homogeneity. I can imagine square chambers would result in lots of process challenges.

New comment by smokefoot in "TSMC experimenting with rectangular wafers vs. round for more chips per wafer"

smokefoot — Sat, 22 Jun 2024 18:21:22 +0000

The cost of silicon is less than insignificant in an advanced semiconductor product.

New comment by smokefoot in "Regular expression functions in Excel"

smokefoot — Fri, 24 May 2024 19:25:03 +0000

It’s interesting to see the give and take between google sheets and excel. Google sheets came on the scene shooting for total backwards compatibility and then proceeded to develop some really interesting innovations. Now we see new features emerging on both sides that are quickly replicated by the other player. Notably off the top of my mind:

* spill formulas - google first, now supported in MSFT

* # notation - MSFT enhancement to spill formulas not yet adopted in google

* regular expressions - google first, now in Excel

* check boxes - google first, now supported in excel

There must be others. I would expect competitive dynamics where each side tries to build extensions that can’t be replicated on the other side

New comment by smokefoot in "Class Action Against General Motors LLC, OnStar LLC, LexisNexis Risk Solutions [pdf]"

smokefoot — Fri, 15 Mar 2024 02:27:27 +0000

Right, good point. We will see if regulators take up that cause.

New comment by smokefoot in "Class Action Against General Motors LLC, OnStar LLC, LexisNexis Risk Solutions [pdf]"

smokefoot — Fri, 15 Mar 2024 00:59:01 +0000

The secrecy is ick, but this is the future and there’s no stopping it.

There’s ample evidence that consumers won’t pay for privacy and as most consumers opt in to data sharing programs, the non-data-sharing cohort will get seriously adverse further raising the price of privacy. The equilibrium state is that only bad actors and a handful of privacy zealots will inhabit that pool and mainstream carriers won’t even bid it.

New comment by smokefoot in "Class Action Against General Motors LLC, OnStar LLC, LexisNexis Risk Solutions [pdf]"

smokefoot — Fri, 15 Mar 2024 00:43:36 +0000

This is not how capitalism works. However, if insurance were priced perfectly, it would cease to be useful!

New comment by smokefoot in "Class Action Against General Motors LLC, OnStar LLC, LexisNexis Risk Solutions [pdf]"

smokefoot — Fri, 15 Mar 2024 00:42:14 +0000

There used to be opt-in insurance programs with many carriers. They used to send you a device, but I guess that was mooted by secret mass surveillance?

New comment by smokefoot in "All Aboard the Bureaucracy Train"

smokefoot — Mon, 26 Feb 2024 12:58:28 +0000

Some serious ADHD apparent in this interview. Like what was that digression about North African countries writing in French? That really should have been edited out.

New comment by smokefoot in "Did a 1997 merger ruin Boeing?"

smokefoot — Fri, 12 Jan 2024 01:06:55 +0000

Most carriers operate both Airbus and Boeing. Low cost carriers have less diversity and operate either 737s or A300s. Southwest is the only airline I can think of that would have their hand forced in this way.

New comment by smokefoot in "Gemini AI"

smokefoot — Wed, 06 Dec 2023 23:59:41 +0000

Also there’s less downside risk for OpenAI. Google has layers of approvals and risk committees because they don’t want to put the money machine at risk through litigation, reputation or regulation. OpenAI has nothing to lose—this is their only game. That allows them to toe the line of what’s acceptable like Uber in its early years. With all the copyright risk involved, that’s a big deal.

New comment by smokefoot in "Broadcom to Cut Almost 1,300 VMware Jobs in California After Takeover"

smokefoot — Fri, 01 Dec 2023 15:58:24 +0000

Yes! And aggressively enforce your software license agreements with frequent audits.

Anything to make money other than innovating and actually building better products.

New comment by smokefoot in "Broadcom to Cut Almost 1,300 VMware Jobs in California After Takeover"

smokefoot — Fri, 01 Dec 2023 01:18:28 +0000

It’s not that different from software focused private equity shops like Thoma Bravo. Buy a software company, starve it of resources, and price just below each clients BATNA. Revenue may decline over time, but costs fall faster and the buyer harvests that premium. There’s no synergies, just a willingness to be more ruthless and give fewer shits.

Edit: clarity