<rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>Hacker News: sobellian</title><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=sobellian</link><description>Hacker News RSS</description><docs>https://hnrss.org/</docs><generator>hnrss v2.1.1</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 07:48:04 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://hnrss.org/user?id=sobellian" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"></atom:link><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Schedule tasks on the web"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I didn't make any claims contradicted by literature. The only thing I cited as bedrock fact, NFL, is a mathematical theorem. I'm not sure why Nim shouldn't be relevant, it's an exercise in logic.<p>> “AlphaZero excels at learning through association,” Zhou and Riis argue, “but fails when a problem requires a form of symbolic reasoning that cannot be implicitly learned from the correlation between game states and outcomes.”<p>Seems relevant.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 15:04:55 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47543520</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47543520</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47543520</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Schedule tasks on the web"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Hey man, it sounds like you're getting frustrated. I'm not ignoring anything; let's have a reasonable discussion without calling each other ignorant. I don't dispute the value of these tools nor that they're improving. But the no free lunch theorem is inexorable so the question is where this improvement breaks down - before or beyond human performance on programming problems specifically.<p>What difference do I think there is between humans and an agent? They use different heuristics, clearly. Different heuristics are valuable on different search problems. It's really that simple.<p>To be clear, I'm not calling either superior. I use agents every day. But I have noticed that claude, a SOTA model, makes basic logic errors. Isn't that interesting? It has access to the complete compendium of human knowledge and can code all sorts of things in seconds that require my trawling through endless documentation. But sometimes it forgets that to do dirty tracking on a pure function's output, it needs to dirty-track the function's inputs.<p>It's interesting that you mention AlphaGo. I was also very fascinated with it. There was recent research that the same algorithm cannot learn Nim: <a href="https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/03/figuring-out-why-ais-get-flummoxed-by-some-games/" rel="nofollow">https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/03/figuring-out-why-ais-get-...</a>. Isn't that food for thought?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 14:32:57 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47543109</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47543109</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47543109</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Schedule tasks on the web"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The space of programs is incomprehensibly massive. Searching for a program that does what you need is a particularly difficult search problem. In the general case you can't solve search, there's no free lunch. Even scaling laws must bow to NFL. But depending on the type of search problem some heuristics can do well. We know human brains have a heuristic that can program (maybe not particularly well, but passably). To evaluate these agents we can only look at it experimentally, there is no sense in which they are mathematically destined to eventually program well.<p>How good are these types of algorithms at generalization? Are they learning how to code; or are they learning how to code migrations, then learning how to code caches, then learning how to code a command line arg parser, etc?<p>Verifiable domains are interesting. It is unquestionably why agents have come first for coding. But if you've played with claude you may have experienced it short-circuiting failing tests, cheating tests with code that does not generalize, writing meaningless tests, and at long last if you turn it away from all of these it may say something like "honest answer - this feature is really difficult and we should consider a compromise."</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 13:44:13 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542575</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542575</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542575</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Schedule tasks on the web"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Scaling laws vs combinatorial explosion, who wins? In personal experience claude does exceedingly well on mundane code (do a migration, add a field, wire up this UI) and quite poorly on code that has likely never been written (even if it is logically simple for a human). The question is whether this is a quantitative or qualitative barrier.<p>Of course it's still valuable. A real app has plenty of mundane code despite our field's best efforts.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 13:13:53 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542281</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542281</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542281</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Tell HN: Litellm 1.82.7 and 1.82.8 on PyPI are compromised"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>If the payload is a credential stealer then they can use that to escalate into basically anything right?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2026 14:10:47 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47517588</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47517588</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47517588</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "The math that explains why bell curves are everywhere"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>IIRC there's a video by 3b1b that talks about that, and it is important that gaussians are closed under convolution.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:04:19 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47432975</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47432975</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47432975</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Is legal the same as legitimate: AI reimplementation and the erosion of copyleft"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I think the article in fact reaches the exact opposite conclusion it should. I'm not really sure how useful it is to talk about sharing and commons and morals when the point raised was about what is possible. The prescription includes copyleft APIs. These are not possible under Oracle v Google. And you could point it out if I'm wrong but the article doesn't discuss what would happen if Congress acted to reverse Oracle v Google (IMO a cosmically bad idea).</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2026 00:00:47 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47317488</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47317488</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47317488</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>SpaceX uses flight proven boosters. The rockets aren't quite as gigantic nor as single-shot as the Saturn V. Also, they launch satellites into LEO for commercial reasons. It's quite a different beast from lobbing LEMs at the moon where the money is essentially lit on fire.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2025 01:14:18 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45663862</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45663862</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45663862</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I'd say material science since the only non-ablative material we can use is too brittle compared to a normal fuselage. I really hope they succeed but it's a pretty fundamental problem to have unanswered this deep into the program development (and gating Artemis no less). Also hard to judge their progress without the data their heat shield team is getting, see <a href="https://x.com/mcrs987/status/1978183753114505496" rel="nofollow">https://x.com/mcrs987/status/1978183753114505496</a> for example. It's great that they can tolerate loss of vehicle & have better margins due to the steel fuselage but for Artemis and Mars they need to solve it or they'll be burning up hardware fast, literally.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2025 01:10:45 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45663840</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45663840</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45663840</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The space program stalled because pouring national wealth into gigantic single-use rockets was unsustainable. They tried with Shuttle but the material science wasn't there yet (heck it might not be even now, it doesn't seem that they've really nailed down the heat shield on Starship yet).</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:59:45 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45661628</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45661628</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45661628</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Do YC after you graduate: Early decision for students"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Having done this, and acknowledging the fuzzy definition of "rich" etc - going through YC after graduating is a great career move. You have to do everything yourself so you learn a lot. About business, about a specific industry, about programming, whatever. You make connections. But unless you walk an absolute golden path (hey it happens), > 90% chance you don't get rich. > 99.9% chance you won't get rich by 30.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 25 Sep 2025 01:23:20 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45368198</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45368198</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45368198</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Ex-Waymo engineers launch Bedrock Robotics to automate construction"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>There is so much work for skilled tradesmen that they would rather see more automation so they can take more jobs. Even many unions, e.g. carpenters' unions, think this way.<p>I mean no large group is a monolith so I'm sure one can find opinions either way among tradesmen. But IMO the problem is so big that it's no longer revenue maximizing for anyone, even the workers. By some measures productivity has actually been declining for construction. If that was good for workers then we should just set them to digging a second Panama Canal with spoons.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2025 03:23:20 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44589386</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44589386</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44589386</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Gödel's theorem debunks the most important AI myth – Roger Penrose [video]"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> It's very difficult to find some way of defining rather precisely something we can do that we can say a computer will never be able to do. There are some things that people make up that say that, "While it's doing it, will it feel good?" or, "While it's doing it, will it understand what it's doing?" or some other abstraction. I rather feel that these are things like, "While it's doing it, will it be able to scratch the lice out of it's hair?" No, it hasn't got any hair nor lice to scratch from it, okay?<p>> You've got to be careful when you say what the human does, if you add to the actual result of his effort some other things that you like, the appreciation of the aesthetic... then it gets harder and harder for the computer to do it because the human beings have a tendency to try to make sure that they can do something that no machine can do. Somehow it doesn't bother them anymore, it must have bothered them in earlier times, that machines are stronger physically than they are...<p>- Feynman<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipRvjS7q1DI" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipRvjS7q1DI</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 02 Mar 2025 23:52:38 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43236636</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43236636</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43236636</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in ""Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>He didn't topple the system but it wasn't for lack of trying. Pence had to refuse Trump's repeated requests to fix the election (a precedent that would have guaranteed single-party rule). You are relying now, as you were then, on <i>other</i> people in the system conducting themselves with integrity. If it were up to Trump, Biden would never have assumed office.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 19 Feb 2025 18:40:05 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43105681</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43105681</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43105681</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Voters were right about the economy"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Okay but we were talking about the unemployment statistic in this thread. Does it add any information? It likely does not.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 12 Feb 2025 14:10:30 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43025571</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43025571</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43025571</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Voters were right about the economy"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The proposed measure is highly correlated with U-3, so as time-series they should basically tell the same story. If the assertion is "U-3 doesn't predict this phenomenon but this other measure does" it's likely to be wrong since the signals are roughly equal to a constant factor. For the entire data range depicted in the paper this property holds. Is it possible that back in $GOOD_OLD_DAYS this isn't true? Well I'd like to see the data but I don't have time to chase it down and none has been offered to support that claim.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 12 Feb 2025 04:22:57 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43021857</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43021857</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43021857</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Voters were right about the economy"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>AFAICT the article was written by the guy that germinated the concept in the first place. You can see the paper at <a href="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/63c1bb4dc740e1acb5d3b6dd_TRU%20White%20Paper.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/...</a><p>tl;dr It is very highly correlated to U-3. The paper doesn't include 2024 in the data series but the figure the article cites, 23.7%, is very near all-time best. That's pretty deceptive framing IMO.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 11 Feb 2025 20:58:08 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43018275</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43018275</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43018275</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Show HN: Play with real quantum physics in your browser"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>In practice it would be very difficult to predict RDRAND outputs. Even so I believe the truly paranoid can use RDSEED to skip the PRNG step. Not qualified at all to talk about how they de-bias the measurements.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 07 Feb 2025 20:27:32 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42977088</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42977088</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42977088</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "The young, inexperienced engineers aiding DOGE"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> Like, life in USA became more or less good only several generations ago, after the country became giant economical winner of WW2.<p>This judgement of course depends upon the standards of the observer and where in the US you look. Before the attack on Pearl Harbor, many elites in the Empire of Japan had spent time in America and came to view America as spoiled, decadent, and too soft to fight a long war.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 04 Feb 2025 07:14:21 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42929126</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42929126</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42929126</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by sobellian in "Ross Ulbricht granted a full pardon"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> Many criminal gangs from biker groups to foreign cartels are doing the same thing and reaping profits in the $100Bs scale annually.<p>That comparison does not flatter Ross Ulbricht.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jan 2025 12:12:56 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42791911</link><dc:creator>sobellian</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42791911</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42791911</guid></item></channel></rss>