This could very well be why planned economies seem to struggle with innovation. People being able to devote significant resources to endeavors, that might not make sense to most, is how you get lots of failures, and the occasional revolutionary successes. Do everything by committee and all you get is a shinier version of what you had last year.

The fundamental problem is that moving parts break, so their design/behavior are very limited. For instance Curiosity's drill can only drill to about 6cm, and even then it broke after 16 limited activations. It then took a team of scientists around 2 years to come up with a partially effective workaround. A guy on the scene could have fixed it a few minutes, or done just as effective 'drilling' himself with a spoon. We're literally not even scratching the surface of what Mars has to offer.

Another issue is in mobility. That involves lots of moving parts. So Curiosity tends to move around at about 0.018 mph (0.03 km/h) meaning at its average speed it'd take about 2.5 days to travel a mile. But of course that's extremely risky since you really need to make sure you don't bump into a pebble or head into a low value area. So you want human feedback on a ~40 minute round trip total latency on a low bandwidth connection - while accounting for normal working hours on Earth. So in practice Curiosity has traveled a total of just a bit more than 1 mile per year. And as might be expected its tires have also broken. So it's contemporary travel time would be even worse.

Imagine trying to dig into all the secrets of Earth by traveling around at 1 mile per year, and once every few years (on average) being able to drill hopefully up to 6cm. And all of these things btw are bleeding edge relative to the past. The issue of moving parts break is just an unsolvable issue for now and for anytime in the foreseeable future.

I don't think that's just a coincidence either. Economic issues in the US used to foreshadow booms to come, which makes sense in many ways as it's the ending of one generation of businesses and the start of another. By contrast in the US prices have increased by 30% over almost the same length of time as the 'long depression', and continue going up up and away. It'd be nonsensical to call it the long inflation or whatever because it's only slightly off the normal. 2% 'planned' inflation over the same 7 year period is a 15% increase in prices. And businesses going under? No, everything's huge now, and so everything's too big to fail. The government has taken on the responsibility of perpetually propping up failing businesses, forever inhibiting competition in the process.

And there's no boom waiting at the end, in no small part because there is no end. Each economic issue we face, which are becoming increasingly regular, just further magnifies the divides in society. The wealthy have sufficient assets and resources to turn this into profit, in no small part by dumping excesses of money into inflation resistant assets, but the middle and lower classes have no such option and so mostly just lose either badly or very badly. This [1] site lays out a bunch of the data since 1971 (when the dollar became completely unbacked following the end of Bretton Woods) and impossible not to see it as an enormous inflection point for all sorts of nasty stuff.

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I suspect if we hadn't had the tech boom kicking off fairly shortly after 1971, driving in a decades long unprecedented economic boom, that this experiment would have long since reached its climatic failure. It only works with infinite exponential growth. For some time we had that. Now we not only no longer do, but also are seeing a fertility collapse at the same time. There's gonna be some fireworks.

[1] - https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

It's even more interesting to contrast this from 1971 onward. 1971 is when Bretton Woods ended and the government was given a free hand to start 'printing money' so to speak, and inflation became the new policy. Since then the CPI has increased by more than 800 points, 1600% more than our baseline. And it's only increasing faster now - to the point that these numbers I'm giving are already rather outdated.

[1] - https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/infl...

But if you as a first party are publishing something directly, like Google is here, you're generally liable for what it says.

The biggest practical issue will be that if these robots ever did start replacing people on a large enough scale, then you'd have a lot of angry, desperate people with a lot of time on their hands. So that alone will probably work as the primary mediating factor.

Quite an interesting time to be alive because the future is so completely impossible to predict. The world just a decade from now could look entirely different, or it could just be self driving cars all over again.

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1Q4Su54iho

The reason PC purchases plummeted is not because people stopped using them, but because if you don't use your PC for high end gaming (or a tiny handful of other esoteric tasks) then one from a decade, or even more, ago will function 100% as well as a brand new one.

[1] - https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio...

Something to keep in mind is that in the 70s digital tech also started to come into its own and that basically provided a massive economic boon to countries worldwide, but especially in the US. And so the concept of endless infinite exponential growth, as the current experiment effectively requires, was coincidentally paired alongside an era that made that briefly seem possible.

But now that that era is fading, the consequences of our actions are catching up to us. For instance in the US interest on the debt is now about 3% of the GDP, and the debt itself about 120% of GDP. And as faith in the debt falters, that will increase exponentially because rates for borrowing (which is how the government 'prints' money) will increase, due to reduced demand paired with increases in supply for such.

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Basically instead of looking at GDP or whatever, I'd look to things on life contentment, optimism, and so on. If those are positive, then I think a government must be doing something right. If those are negative, then who cares what this metric or that says?

Anyhow apparently examples of "Russian hybrid warfare" are the West cynically claiming Russia blew up its own oil pipeline. Those tricky Russians multiplying their forces by blowing up their own pipelines. Just imagine what they could achieve if they nuked themselves! Imagine, just for a second somebody linking to an article/account that was pro-Russian, but otherwise everything was equal but opposite. Can you even begin to imagine what you might think? Well that's what I'm thinking.

I'm also of the mindset that the effort to suggest there's state propaganda everywhere is, itself, mostly domestic state propaganda in an effort to try to 'otherize' dissenting views, especially as politicians and their actions become ever more unpopular.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

Like imagine there was something you could buy where you insert some lumber, give it some passable description of furniture, and it outputs it. And you paid $20/month for access to this. And this was all being bankrolled by the furniture industry? I mean, sure guys - it's much appreciated, but I don't think I've ever seen anybody so enthusiastic about digging their own grave. I think it's already obvious that the gazillion dollars of API calls isn't going to materialize - it seems the handful of companies that trialed that are already reversing course hard. And in the future where LLMs are successful, that'd be even more true.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...

So in modern times the situation is quite a bit more different and relatively unprecedented, at least if we continue along with anything like the former status quo. But I'd wager that the former status quo is probably dead, even after the current administration leaves office. The DNC is showing good predict market rates for a win in 2028 and I'd wager that they'll run on a much more moderate platform for immigration, far away from both Trump and Biden.

A generation is proportional to the the practical fertility window of a given era, so somewhere around 20 years. The deaths (and subsequent population change) will lag behind generations by about 50 years, but become largely unavoidable because female fertility collapses rapidly after ~40. And so when there is a shared fertility rate amongst a population, each ~20 years the population will change by the fertility factor.

So you end up bleeding people fast once the death phase kicks in - you're talking about losing 50% of your population each 20 years. This is why places like Japan will still look to today as the 'good ole days'. They're currently only losing about 11% of their population per 20 years, but with a fertility rate of 1.2 they'll trend towards losing around 40% per 20 years.

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Anyhow, the point of this all is that there simply are not enough people in the world to make up for this sort of loss. And that's if you're willing to accept an adult male with no education and who may not even speak the language, which isn't exactly the foundation of a great society. When you speak of wanting skilled English speakers, both male and female, then yeah - it's really not happening.

So countries will be left to increase their fertility rates or die. Though even that statement kind of misrepresents what happens. Rather the higher fertility subpopulations within society will gradually come to dominate those societies. So in some manner speaking, perhaps the Bible was write and the meek will come to inherit the Earth. An America made of Amish? Pretty funny to imagine, but not really out of domain of possibility at all. Fertility is going to radically reshape the face of Earth and it's difficult to predict what that will look like other than very different.

But the point of this is that in a relatively short period of time, the world is going to look far different than the overwhelming majority might ever expect. This is because most expect the status quo, in some form, to indefinitely persist, yet of course it never does. And it seems we're on the cusp of major shifts across many different domains, all at once.

Following those acts and laws, immigration declined to a valley of 4.7% foreign born in 1970. Then it began rising again with more permissive/enabling acts playing a significant role in driving such, like IRCA under Reagan. In any case we're now up to 15.8% with no end in sight, and history is, as always, not just repeating, but practically plagiarizing itself.

[1] - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi...

So for instance I'll happily tell my kids that marijuana is enjoyable and relatively harmless in and of itself, yet you end up smelling bad, it ruins motivation, hurts your short-term memory, gives you the munchies, and is just generally is self-escapism, like most drugs. Gotta work on my exact pitch there, but that's the spirit of the point - honesty. They will make plenty of bad decisions in life, but I'd rather that with each one they see I was right, rather than see that I was lying or exaggerating - driving them further away from everything else I taught them.