Hacker News: sometimelurker

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:48:41 +0000

> Where in nature has anything ever grown exponentially in perpetuity?

you could make the argument for human total GDP, which looks like https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-gdp-over-the-long-..., but then again, you could say we just haven't reached the sigmoid in it. I personally doubt we will

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:46:53 +0000

LLM + scale = more intelligent, this can be proven more than empirically, https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.15318 shows that neural nets can fit a number of independent AND-gate operations in their weights,

- if you have a system that is large enough to store, lets say 10^12 AND gates (all frontier llms can do this) - and this system can produce outputs based on previous things it has outputed

its turning complete, and RLVR on it is optimization over the space of algorithms. If an algorithm exists to do a task, and the task can be verifiably done, this finds the algorithm to solve the task most often.

it is obvious that this scales, from much-worse-than-human to slightly-worse-than-human, therefore it 100% can exceed humans.

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:35:39 +0000

> defeat any nations that don't discard humans

AGI doesn't do away with nuclear MAD, it just messes with economics and makes many people temporarily jobless. Temporarily because in a literal sense RLVR needs verification to train off of, and a lot of jobs cant be easily checked if theyre done. this includes AI safety people, preschool teachers, psychologists, and probably a lot more, including most of their bosses

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 01:21:11 +0000

> Ensuring Chinese compliance would be incredible hard to enforce or to check

consider SALT and other treaties from USSR vs USA cold war. they checked

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 01:20:07 +0000

> But every exponential is at a certain point a sigmoid.

strongly, no. its just hard to distinguish them. for example, radioactive decay. cmon

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 01:18:29 +0000

> Governments exerting this much control will only end in war

elaborate. regulation -> war, how?

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 01:17:02 +0000

we should never make ASI, what I am saying is strongly sane. ASI = not good. AGI, ~human brainpower, can be made safe enough.

> Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully?

human GMO, some bioweopns, I'm sure theres a long list of awful stuff no one wants to exist.

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI 2040: Plan A"

sometimelurker — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 01:14:46 +0000

source needed. I'm not saying ur wrong, but source needed

New comment by sometimelurker in "GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra produces proof of the Cycle Double Cover Conjecture [pdf]"

sometimelurker — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 20:50:48 +0000

all easily varifyable tasks can now be solved with money. this is worth paying attention to. math proofs are verifyable -> math proofs are easy now. you can think of other such tasks: cybersecurity, AI R&D/RSI, killing people, 3d-printing helpful tools, maxxing-out human health, manipulation, self-driving cars, anything that can be checked

all jobs in the future will be those can not be easily verifiably done. if you need a team of people to decide if you have been productive, and those people cant be automated, you're in luck.

New comment by sometimelurker in "Opinionated and easy Pi.dev configuration"

sometimelurker — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:52:43 +0000

people use different models. I use small local ones for instance

New comment by sometimelurker in "AI content is everywhere on social media, especially LinkedIn"

sometimelurker — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 21:06:05 +0000

Can they add hackernews to their study analysis? And do a measure over time?

New comment by sometimelurker in "Show HN: Microsoft releases Flint, a visualization language for AI agents"

sometimelurker — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 16:38:10 +0000

why is this better than eg matplotlib?

New comment by sometimelurker in "Just Pay the Subscription"

sometimelurker — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:46:58 +0000

strawman fallacy, I can debate anti-subscription arguments much better. I don't think subscriptions have to be bad, but this is unreasonable

New comment by sometimelurker in "My thoughts on the Bun Rust rewrite"

sometimelurker — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:43:31 +0000

reminds me of https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qEbqPitYhWHthwFNu/bun-s-migr.... remember anthropic owns bun

New comment by sometimelurker in "Suspecting AI cheating, Ivy League prof ordered in-person final; scores fell 50%"

sometimelurker — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:57:20 +0000

I like the quote at the end

"we cannot choose to become idiots"

New comment by sometimelurker in "98% Isn't Much"

sometimelurker — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 15:00:23 +0000

I like stuff that takes a statistic that we view one way and explains how to see it another way

in this sense, related https://danluu.com/p95-skill/

New comment by sometimelurker in "Ask HN: Is HN crowd a left-leaning?"

sometimelurker — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:35:08 +0000

linux is gpl, not dead

New comment by sometimelurker in "2026 Unslop AI-Written Fiction Contest Results"

sometimelurker — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 18:26:26 +0000

'X-risk/S-risk' is a superset of 'hierarchical world with zero social mobility' and 'ASI taking over the planet is ridiculous'. x-risk=bad, smart enough power-seeking llms automatically lead to x-risk

New comment by sometimelurker in "Ask HN: Is HN crowd a left-leaning?"

sometimelurker — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 15:22:39 +0000

Probably has something to do with smart technical people being attracted to free software, and then OSS, and then copyleft. the idea of writing code under gpl feels pretty left to me.

New comment by sometimelurker in "Europe's new climate in seven charts"

sometimelurker — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 15:15:05 +0000

coordination problems. everyone (mostpeople) wants action to be taken, but it requires coordination