Given the history here, No matter which tool becomes the death star of developer workflow it always trends towards complexity and the challenges that come with it. Hosting your own doesn't become a panacea as most IT/ops teams also struggle with uptime and upgrades (increasingly relevant).

The only way out IMHO as customers picking two of these goliaths of sending a clear signal to them that we're happy to pay them handsomely for a stable and less sprawling product. Or a hosted open source version with a different cost structure that doesn't drive these wild swings at feature bloat and the inherent instability that comes with that chase.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therac-25

I'm curious what the game theoretic optimal here is.

In the US we try to maintain inflation at a target rate of 2%. For commodities where the costs aren't able to keep pace with inflation you'd either expect prices to double every 35 years or for the product to be half-ish the size (assuming labor costs scale by size). It's a 99 cent candy bar so...

I think inflation rate and costs of lots of things due to oil has jumped so much in the last few years that both the costs have gotten mouth watering and sizes have gotten noticeably smaller. But I prefer either of those to leveraging even more low cost filler, which I assume is the other option.

I honestly think in the US portion sizes tend to be larger than I need here so I'd honestly prefer if they lowered prices and dropped sizes to something reasonable.

1. Our incentive structure in software has always been to a large extent driven by more features [1]. Agent driven development has poured gasoline on that fire.

2. Despite all the effort we put into quality assurance by engineering teams, it's still hard to full de-risk releases across a broad set of configurations use cases, etc. Especially as most agents and even the test hierarchy itself tends to favor unit or module tests and these issues tend to pop up at integration points or hard to test non functional requirements.

So I think what we're seeing is people are rapidly adopting agent lead development due to #1 but the risk reduction pipelines haven't caught up with #2. I think they eventually will but we're definitely in for a rough road for a bit.

[1] https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2006/12/09/simplicity/

The post starts off so cynical. I know a few people at anthropic and oai and the simplest explanation also matches my observations that they actually believe what they say. That agents will be doing the bulk of the programming in the not so distant future. They believe they themselves will be out of jobs at that point.

They aren't managing some message and trying to teach the anti AI folks a lesson.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.09009

Is this a known phenomenon? Are any folks trying to measure any of this objectively?

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48492515

Points: 9

# Comments: 7

Guy has pipes.

Oh his software was pretty good too.

Folks also need to remember that a lot of blog posts are written by engineers or managers that have their own agendas and careers and often external blog posts can be a form of self marketing or idea marketing that an engineer or director has been pushing internally.

I have no idea if this happened in mozilla's case but the person that wrote it seemed to talk about the their own internal harness / fuzz testing framework quite a bit, and I imagine it was probably a big part of that person's scope / accomplishments and will probably show up at their end of year review and on their resume.

My desires are pretty different in the two scenarios. Q&A mode if it's not quick to respond I'll think something is wrong with my phone.

Deep think mode I'm honestly kind of pissed off at how fast it tries to respond. I want it to slow down and give me a chance to process and use extra compute on its side (including newer models) so it doesn't just spew low thought bullshit at me.

It seems like the system could detect which of these two modes was happening and adapt, including protocol.

I haven't tried the voice mode since the new model updates, maybe it's gotten better.

Counter to everything I just said though and germain to the topic at hand, when I'm in q&a mode that's probably the worst time for it to drop audio as it changes the query significantly. vs when I'm talking at it for 2 minutes it could probably throw half away.

Like smaller models that show effectiveness on problems with verifiable rewards when run in a loop with external grounding context?

And I like your ideas but I don't see why the venues and artists don't want to capture more of what people are willing to pay enabled by what the parent comment suggested.

I wonder if in your system it actually attracts fans or just people that have the time to wait for tickets.