Hacker News: tfehring

Bootstrapping Frontier AI Governance by Mutualizing Risk

tfehring — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 20:05:30 +0000

Article URL: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/bootstrapping-frontier-ai-governance-by-mutualizing-risk

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49807340

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

New comment by tfehring in "Astra for Law"

tfehring — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 21:59:59 +0000

https://axiom.org is working on this but very early.

New comment by tfehring in "Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters"

tfehring — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 16:52:40 +0000

For statistical time series forecasting, yes. This is for judgment-based forecasting, a somewhat different problem. It often involves, e.g. estimating the probabilities of one-off future events, which time series forecasting models aren’t suited for.

New comment by tfehring in "We must pace the frontier"

tfehring — Sat, 12 Sep 2026 20:40:05 +0000

The problem is the combination and interaction of those things. RSI without misalignment would be great. Misalignment of models with current capabilities is sort of fine - it's not ideal, but it's not an existential threat to humanity, and we can build around their limitations to get them to do useful things in reliable enough ways. The really bad outcomes probably only happen if capabilities keep accelerating and the models remain misaligned.

New comment by tfehring in "Y Combinator Early Access Network"

tfehring — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:47:43 +0000

Relatedly, I think "acceptance" to this program will be easy, bordering on automatic, if you have an enterprise AI budget and purchasing authority.

New comment by tfehring in "Y Combinator Early Access Network"

tfehring — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:42:33 +0000

Right, the point of this from YC's perspective is to identify and pre-qualify the minority of enterprise AI buyers that can move quickly. Even those buyers aren't going to research and inbound to early-stage YC startups very often. The startups aren't intentionally staying quiet, but often they haven't nailed product-market fit and/or messaging yet.

New comment by tfehring in "Ask HN: Who is hiring? (September 2026)"

tfehring — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:11:44 +0000

Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company (aiuc.com) | Member of Technical Staff (full-stack + AI evals) | Full-time | Onsite (San Francisco) | $200K - $400K + equity

We're a team of frontier AI (including ex-Anthropic, METR, OpenAI), insurance, and governance people building incentive infrastructure to help ASI go well. We red-team, certify, and insure AI agents - working with AI category leaders like Cursor, ElevenLabs, Fin, Harvey, Lovable, and UiPath; auditors like Schellman and KPMG; insurance partners at Lloyd's of London; and the AIUC-1 Consortium https://www.aiuc-1.com/consortium.

We've raised $55m from investors including Ribbit, First Harmonic, and Nat Friedman, and we're hiring across the board in San Francisco.

Apply to our MTS role: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/aiuc/2816bb05-2a1f-4600-8780-deb152...

Browse all of our open roles: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/aiuc

New comment by tfehring in "A look under our trunk: what's in our compute"

tfehring — Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:32:55 +0000

Waymo also lets you pick, but only from a predetermined list of pickup/dropoff locations. Sometimes there's not a spot on the side of the street you'd want, other times it will default to a spot on the other side of the street but you can override.

Evaluating Coding Agents

tfehring — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:50:35 +0000

Article URL: https://www.aiuc-1.com/research/technical-docs-evaluating-coding-agents

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49301314

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

New comment by tfehring in "Managing AI Coding Costs at Scale"

tfehring — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 04:33:42 +0000

I'm also at a startup. My workflow is similar but I have Fable 5 xhigh drive the whole thing: it gets Codex CLI installed in its environment with an API key, and it's instructed to delegate ~everything to Codex and review its work, especially for code quality/conciseness. Fable delegates to Sol or Luna (fast mode) xhigh/max depending on the task - I think Luna xhigh on fast mode is basically a Pareto improvement over Sol medium.

New comment by tfehring in "U.S. Weighs $100k Fee for Foreign Students Wanting to Work After Graduation"

tfehring — Thu, 30 Jul 2026 18:03:28 +0000

Most evidence indicates that OPT graduates create more jobs for US-born workers through business formation than they "consume," so this change would get us further from full employment for US-born workers. See e.g. [0] [1]

[0] https://bw.bse.eu/wp-content/uploads/1564_compressed.pdf

[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635535

New comment by tfehring in "Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence"

tfehring — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 21:03:57 +0000

> The full model weights will be released by July 27, 2026.

Still sensible to mark proprietary for now though.

New comment by tfehring in "Inkling: Our Open-Weights Model"

tfehring — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 18:09:37 +0000

Like, buy and set up the physical hardware? I cba with that. Plus the hardware you want for LoRA (the type but especially the quantity) is different than what you want for inference, so either you'd under-spec it and wait forever for fine-tuning runs, or over-spec it and have low utilization most of the time. And even then who knows if it would be good enough to LoRA next year's best open source model. AWS gets great margins for renting out commodity hardware as a service because it built the right abstractions and can serve them efficiently at scale, I think the arguments here are basically the same.

New comment by tfehring in "Inkling: Our Open-Weights Model"

tfehring — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:31:04 +0000

Thinky's main commercial product AFAIK is Tinker [0] - companies pay them to host their fine-tuning workloads and then the resulting fine-tuned models. I don't know if this is a good business plan, but I'm sure at least one person there has read Joel on Software [1].

[0] https://thinkingmachines.ai/tinker/

[1] https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2002/06/12/strategy-letter-v/

New comment by tfehring in "GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex"

tfehring — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 05:52:57 +0000

I assume this is ~equivalent to ultracode in Claude Code, which can deploy a tree of hundreds of nested subagents and was just released experimentally 5 weeks ago IIRC.

New comment by tfehring in "Not everyone is using AI for everything"

tfehring — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 16:48:52 +0000

It's still just a bad answer across the board. Having opinions and being able to articulate and defend them clearly is itself an extremely important hiring signal regardless of a company's stance on generative AI. An AI-forward company will be looking for an answer like "I haven't written code manually since 2025, I use ..., I stay on top of new tools without drowning in hype by ..." If that's not your answer, you probably aren't a good fit for those companies, but companies that would be a fit will still want a similar level of decisiveness. Much better to give an honest answer that will sound good to the right people than a wishy-washy answer that will sound bad to everyone.

New comment by tfehring in "Waymo Premier"

tfehring — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 21:12:58 +0000

For comparison, I live in SF and am low-risk on all the dimensions you'd expect on HN, and I pay $100/month for non-owner coverage with similar limits - i.e., I don't own a car and my coverage only applies when I rent one. When I owned a car it was much higher, of course.

New comment by tfehring in "Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing"

tfehring — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 18:52:18 +0000

Not really. There are clearly diminishing marginal returns, so it's likely that the first $2,400/engineer/year adds >>$2,400 of value, even if 18,001st $/engineer/year adds <$1 of value.

Setting the standard for agentic development [pdf]

tfehring — Tue, 12 May 2026 15:30:34 +0000

Article URL: https://lorqvmwmiiherfjgxrkz.lovable.cloud/storage/v1/object/public/post-pdfs/1778572790778-Setting-the-standard-for-agentic-development.pdf

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48109782

Points: 6

# Comments: 0

New comment by tfehring in "ChatGPT Images 2.0"

tfehring — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 02:41:27 +0000

In case anyone is unfamiliar with one of the most infuriating phone calls of all time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MShv_74FNWU