Can Claude replace you? Have LLMs altered the software developer productivity equation?

In 1987, Fred Brooks wrote [1]:

"But, as we look to the horizon of a decade hence, we see no silver bullet. There is no single development, in either technology or in management technique, that by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude improvement in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity."

Most companies do not measure software developer productivity. I have never been part of an organization that does.

Will it collapse the economy? The last innovation to collapse the economy was credit default swaps. This says more about the economic systems we have built than technology or progress.

No one knows what is going to happen. But humans are still necessary for every stage of labor, and software developers are still necessary for making software.

[1] https://www.cgl.ucsf.edu/Outreach/pc204/NoSilverBullet.html

Same reason why I have no interest in working weekends. Is the CEO going to come by my house on Saturday and mow my lawn? Wait, HR said we were family...

His first communication reduced trust: "It is a privilege to lead an organization with a long history of standing up for people and building technology that puts them first."

Now let's put people first by making Firefox an AI first browser. Enzor-Demeo would have made an excellent Microsoft product manager. Too bad he didn't get the job.

Wikipedia, a generation ago, was considered controversial. It is now more accepted as a legitimate encyclopedia and the criticisms appear quaint when compared to the post-truth atmosphere of our current media. The footnotes and the "citation needed" annotations are meant to mimic a Wikipedia article.

The donate button is a nice touch, from a time when web sites weren't afraid to put links to external sites. Wikipedia probably doesn't need your money, but it is, in my opinion, a solid organization providing an incredible resource to humanity. Though, as with all human enterprises, it has its flaws.

If you want a career in software development, it's better to learn, which means writing code. And maybe study AI tools as well because they will probably be part of the job.

If you want a career as a prompt engineer, study that. I'm not convinced this will be a viable path anytime soon, as in the next five years. But what do I know? I'm an idiot on the internet and am surprised as you are by this world.

If you want to build solutions for end users or customers, use whatever tools work for you. The only thing that matters is the functioning software and the technical debt to keep it functioning.

I don't know how to invest to avoid this bubble. My money is where my mouth is. My investments are conservative and long-term. Most in equity index funds, some bonds, Vanguard mutual funds, a few hand-picked stocks.

No interest in shorting the market or trying to time the crash. I would say I 90% believe a correction of 25% or more will happen in the next 12 months. No idea where my money might be safe. Palantir? Northrup Grumman?

At work, I keep a markdown file open. I take notes from meetings, quick entries to describe what I'm working on a few times a day. It's a single file that goes back to my hire date with current employer. Super useful.

I store both in private git repo's along with shell scripts and config files.

The money is there. Investors believe this is the next big thing, and is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Bigger than the social media boom which made a bunch of billionaires, bigger than the dot com boom, bigger maybe than the invention of the microchip itself.

It's going to be years before any of these companies care about profit. Ad revenue is unlikely to fund the engineering and research they need. So the only question is, does the investor money dry up? I don't think so. Investor money will be chasing AGI until we get it or there's another AI winter.

2. Energy is an important issue. We need a sane energy policy and worldwide cooperation. Corporations should pay the full cost of their energy use, including pollution mitigation and carbon offsets. Pragmatism suggests that this is not likely to happen any time soon. The US will be out of any discussion of sane energy policy for the foreseeable future.

3. The training of many (all?) major LLMs included a step that was criminal. That is, downloading Z-Library or Library Genesis. The issue of Fair Use for training models on copyrighted text is unsettled. The legality of downloading pirated ebooks is well-defined. These books were stripped of their DRM, which itself is illegal under DMCA. It's a crime and CEO's should be held accountable. Training an LLM on copyrighted works might be legal, but stealing those copyrighted works is not. At least buy a copy of the book.

The oligarchs will not lose their freedom or power and they won't fight (or even inconvenience themselves) to preserve yours. Next time you're reading a blog or a biography of a tech billionaire, remember that they got their wealth from wage theft and they will keep their power by destroying yours.

The only law tech companies -- and the oligarchs that own and control them -- have to obey is allegiance to Trump. No other law will be enforced.