Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48903419

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48393156

Points: 5

# Comments: 0

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47385581

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

I have developed decent intuition on what kinds of problems Codex, Claude, Cursor(& sub-variants), Composer etc. will or will not be able to do well across different axes of speed, correctness, architectural taste, ...

If I had to reflect on why I still don't use Gemini, it's because they were late to the party and I would now have to be intentional about spending time learning yet another set of intuitions about those models.

Problem is, that's not what we've observed to happen as these models get better. In reality there is some metaphysical coarse-grained substrate of physics/semantics/whatever[1] which these models can apparently construct for themselves in pursuit of ~whatever~ goal they're after.

The initially stated position, and your position: "trying to hallucinate an entire world is a dead-end", is a sort of maximally-pessimistic 'the universe is maximally-irreducible' claim.

The truth is much much more complicated.

[1] https://www.arxiv.org/abs/2512.03750

If ads are so overpriced, how big is your short position on google? Also ads are extremely inefficient in terms of conversion. Ads rendered by an intelligent, personalized system will be OOM more efficient, negating most of the "overvalue".

I'm not saying they should serve ads. It's a terrible strategy for other reasons.

Hence the author's main point: a good taste is one that fits with the needs of the project. If you can't align your own presuppositions with the actualities of the work you're doing then obviously your subjective measures going forward will not be very good.

[1] https://doc.rust-lang.org/beta/rustc/platform-support.html

There is no evidence to indicate this is the case. To the contrary, all evidence we have points to these models, over time, being able to perform a wider range of tasks at a higher rate of success. Whether it's GPQA, ARC-AGI or tool usage.

> they are delegating to other approaches > Faking intelligence is not intelligence. It's just text generation.

It seems like you know something about what intelligence actually is that you're not sharing. If it walks, talks and quacks like a duck, I have to assume it's a duck[1]. Though, maybe it quacks a bit weird.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solipsism

Zoom out and look at it's trajectory over those 100,00 steps and ask again.

The answer is something alien. Probabilistically it is certain the description of its behavior is not going to exist in a space we as humans can understand. Maybe if we were god beings we could say 'No no, you see the behavior of the double pendulum isn't seemingly random, you just have to look at it like this'. Encryption is a decent analogy here.

We're fooled into thinking we can understand these systems because we forced them to speak English. Under the hood is a different story.

I would note there are some known health hazards in handling thermal-paper receipts(BPA/BPS)[1] with your bare hands if you do so often. I don't know much beyond this, I would look into it.

[1] https://www.pca.state.mn.us/business-with-us/bpa-and-bps-in-...

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43768421

Points: 374

# Comments: 332

If you believe the hypothesis that Americans will pay a huge premium (directly or indirectly by subsidizing the poor build quality) to decrease the mental load by 85% on their twice-daily 35 minute commute, then the company is in good shape.

On top of this, their data moat is enormous and their pipeline is mature. Other car companies seeking this level of autonomous fidelity will need to either race to start harvesting as much data as possible, or make a bet that this quantity will be unnecessary with future models.

Then again, if you don't buy the value-add promise of FSD hypothesis then this company is faltering hard. Cybertruck is flopping in sales (with life-threatening build issues as a bonus), the company is facing deteriorating public perception, the tightening economy makes the 'premium'/'apple' presentation less appealing, serious competitors recently entered the EV market, on and on.

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37585706

Points: 54

# Comments: 13