Hacker News: woeirua

New comment by woeirua in "Tracking Costco gas prices"

woeirua — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:52:33 +0000

It'd be way better if the clusters showed the average price for all the stations underneath each cluster. Then you could get a sense of prices nationally immediately.

New comment by woeirua in "Nvidia AVO scores 100% on the ARC-AGI-3 interactive reasoning benchmark"

woeirua — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:27:25 +0000

I thought ARC-AGI-3 was explicitly a test of raw model performance excluding the harness? Adding the harness back in doesn't tell us anything new. We've known that agents are capable of long horizon reasoning with sufficient harnesses. GPT-4(?) was capable of beating Pokemon 18 months ago but models only became capable of beating it without a harness in the last six months...?

New comment by woeirua in "Incident with Github.com"

woeirua — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 15:55:13 +0000

Is there any scenario in which Github doesn't start yanking features out of the free tier to protect the core service for paying users?

New comment by woeirua in "Discovery Loop"

woeirua — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 20:10:09 +0000

Not really. Grad students are already essentially working for free.

New comment by woeirua in "Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science"

woeirua — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 13:17:42 +0000

This makes no sense. To believe this you have to think that the models are somehow being overfit explicitly on academic mathematics and it doesn’t carry over at all to more practical software engineering. I wouldn’t make that bet.

New comment by woeirua in "Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science"

woeirua — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 13:10:29 +0000

No bud, it’s just the beginning!

New comment by woeirua in "Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science"

woeirua — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 13:09:54 +0000

So… your model is 100% vibes based. Got it.

New comment by woeirua in "Investigating three real-world incidents in our cybersecurity evaluations"

woeirua — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:15 +0000

Anthropic: "Look at how dangerous our models are!"

Anthropic next week: "Why did you ban our models Mr Trump Daddy?"

New comment by woeirua in "AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough"

woeirua — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:39:21 +0000

A lot of people are slowly realizing that code generation was not the bottleneck in their internal development process, and waving a magic wand to make that go faster doesn't actually lead to more revenue.

New comment by woeirua in "AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough"

woeirua — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:37:02 +0000

This is also at the end of the tokenmaxxing era, so I'm not sure I would draw a straight line out from here. A LOT of companies are clamping down on token costs right now.

New comment by woeirua in "AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough"

woeirua — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:35:05 +0000

A couple anecdotes:

I noticed that were a lot of traditional, non-tech companies interviewing for AI engineers in the Feb/March timeframe that have halted hiring in those roles entirely. It seems that if those roles didn't close by mid-April that they didn't close at all. This seems to match the timeframe in which cost suddenly became prominent in the AI zeitgeist.

I don't know _anyone_ outside of SV who has successfully replaced even a single employee completely with the current models. Maybe someone has pulled this off in call centers, but the POCs have all failed.

I'm very much pro-AI, but I just think we're on a false summit. As the article points out, there is absolutely no way to recoup the investment costs unless the models allow companies to start displacing human workers by the millions _and_ recapture a significant fraction of the displaced workers total comp. If either of those aren't true, then the bubble is going to pop... soon.

New comment by woeirua in "Stripe in talks to buy OpenRouter for about $10B"

woeirua — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:59:38 +0000

I don’t get it. There’s no moat here. OpenRouter isn’t hard to rebuild.

New comment by woeirua in "The bread paradox: why convenience always wins, and why SaaS isn't doomed"

woeirua — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:22:55 +0000

Yes, but the market prefers store bought bread despite the fact that homemade bread is: cheaper, tastes better, and nutritionally better. That's the exact point. Homemade bread should objectively win but it doesn't!

New comment by woeirua in "GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse"

woeirua — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 01:16:37 +0000

Agents will make all of these migrations trivial. I expect margin collapse across a lot of tech darlings.

New comment by woeirua in "GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse"

woeirua — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 01:15:37 +0000

There’s actually a strong case that agents will erode cloud providers’ margins because the lock in migration cost will be much lower in the future. No one ever migrated before because you’d spend $$$ to save $$ then the new vendor would gradually raise your rates negating the savings.

New comment by woeirua in "AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector"

woeirua — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 22:55:47 +0000

So then your argument would be that we could see a bifurcation in the SP493 where those who adopt AI see increasing margins and those who do not have their margins crushed. What's funny is that in that scenario, the aggregate market might look zero sum.

New comment by woeirua in "Delta flight hit by firework while landing at Midway Airport on Fourth of July"

woeirua — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:44:43 +0000

I can't take these indexes seriously when Germany is about to outright ban an entire political party. The US takes the first amendment very seriously.

New comment by woeirua in "Delta flight hit by firework while landing at Midway Airport on Fourth of July"

woeirua — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:43:03 +0000

Thatched roofs don't exist in CA.

New comment by woeirua in "GLM 5.2 beats Claude in our benchmarks"

woeirua — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 03:40:46 +0000

>Mythos level really doesn't seem that scary.

This is not a serious comment. A model capable of chaining exploits together is capable of causing massive damage through cyber attacks.

New comment by woeirua in "GLM 5.2 beats Claude in our benchmarks"

woeirua — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 03:39:43 +0000

This assumes that AGI is not a winner takes all or winner takes most scenario. We just don't know that. If RSI actually happens, then it really could be winner takes all, and in that case being 6 months behind is the same as not even playing at all.