Hacker News: yogthos

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3 Is Competitive with Fable; Kimi K3 and Fable Is SoTA"

yogthos — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 03:48:53 +0000

Chinese version was the one I found.

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3 Is Competitive with Fable; Kimi K3 and Fable Is SoTA"

yogthos — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:29:56 +0000

https://www.kimi.com/user/agreement/zh/userPrivacy

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3 Is Competitive with Fable; Kimi K3 and Fable Is SoTA"

yogthos — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 23:10:28 +0000

Anybody who's tried it knows that what they're saying is true though.

New comment by yogthos in "China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning"

yogthos — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:14:19 +0000

oh that's very cool, exactly the kind of stuff we need

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling"

yogthos — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:53:23 +0000

That's my thinking as well. The whole distillation thing is a distraction from the actual innovation happening in this space. What will be interesting to see going forward is what types of new techniques people manage to come up with to over come the current architecture limits.

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling"

yogthos — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:52:01 +0000

Indeed we will, my prediction is that we'll see a model from China that definitively surpasses any US model by the end of the year. China has an absolute population advantage here along with having a much better education system. And China now dominates in published AI papers.

The US enjoyed an early advantage due to excessive money being poured into AI which led to the current bubble, and access to the hardware that was needed to train these models initially.

At this point, neither of these factors actually matter that much. The naive approach of simply making models bigger has hit a wall, and now you need ingenuity in figuring out better architecture for them. Precisely because Chinese companies have had to deal with more limited resources, they put a lot more effort into researching different kinds of optimizing techniques. And of course, China is also catching up in chip making, and Huawei clusters are already competitive with Nvidia for training. So, that gap is closing as well.

The big difference is that an absolutely insane amount of money has been spent in the US, while China managed to do this on a fraction of the budget. The AI Investment Surge graph here puts things in perspective. https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeawa...

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:48:54 +0000

I'm saying it's a cope to claim that the only reason Chinese models are catching up is due to distillation, while pointing out that distillation itself is in no way unique to Chinese companies. I'm sorry this was too complex of an idea for you to follow.

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 20:32:05 +0000

My prediction is that they're going to angle to become a vendor of record for the government and get bailed out. That's the only path at this point because there won't be any competition from China in this niche.

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 20:31:18 +0000

The process takes time because even when you're distilling answers, you still need to actually do reinforcement training on the model. And given that Fable and GPT 5.6 just came out there simply hasn't been much time to do that. On top of that, Kimi also does better than Fable or GPT on a lot of tasks, distillation alone can't explain that, meaning there is a difference in architecture. You can watch a talk from Kimi founder to see how Kimi was actually trained and why it performs well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CkCW1P-g88

Not to mention that US companies models constantly distill each other as Musk was forced to admit under oath. This whole narrative has just been a massive cope.

New comment by yogthos in "China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 18:50:08 +0000

This is precisely why we need more projects like this https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/petals

There's no fundamental reason why models couldn't be developed and trained using community efforts. It might not be as fast and efficient, but it's definitely possible.

New comment by yogthos in "Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 18:47:38 +0000

And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening at the same time.

Real-Time Omni-Modal Interaction Driven Whole-Body Mobile Manipulation [video]

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 16:53:53 +0000

Article URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiNbFPOUrz8

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48981447

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

New comment by yogthos in "The Fermi Paradox, Percolation, and Inbreeding"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 13:01:27 +0000

Sorry, misread your comment. Again though, it seems pretty obvious that our ability to accumulate knowledge across generations by recording it through the use of language is a categorical advantage over other animals.

New comment by yogthos in "The Fermi Paradox, Percolation, and Inbreeding"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:07:15 +0000

The fact that we are able to accumulate knowledge and apply it to shape our environment in a way that no other species is able to kind of does suggest that we have a profound communication advantage.

New comment by yogthos in "The Fermi Paradox, Percolation, and Inbreeding"

yogthos — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:06:17 +0000

Sure, lifespan is a factor, but it's hard to argue that lifespan has been the main factor for humans. Or that lifetime of many other organisms isn't sufficient. And I already pointed out that we co-evolved with language, that's what it means for it to be a dialectical process. However, for language even get bootstrapped, it needs the prerequisite brain structures to support recursive grammars and abstractions we use.

What we can look at is what other species are able to accomplish and how much they are able to shape their environment. I'm not arguing the fact that we don't have a good grasp on how other animal communicate and different kinds of intelligence we have in the animal kingdom. What I'm saying is that our unique combination of being able to abstract concepts and package them up using language, and especially writing, is what allowed up to rapidly accumulate knowledge and pass it across generations. We are demonstrably the only species that does this. Although, there were other hominids originally with similar capabilities that went extinct.

New comment by yogthos in "Moonshot AI suspends new subscriptions due to Kimi K3 demand"

yogthos — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 21:50:36 +0000

I expect what's most likely to happen is that either Anthropic or OpenAI end up becoming a vendor of record for the government and get a bailout. And then their whole business model will be serving use niches which would be considered too sensitive for Chinese models. That's the only plausible business model I can see here.

New comment by yogthos in "The Fermi Paradox, Percolation, and Inbreeding"

yogthos — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 03:44:38 +0000

Yup, and just look at how difficult it is for us to recognize different kinds of intelligence on our own planet too. We've just started figuring out that animals like crows have complex cognition.

New comment by yogthos in "The Kimi K3 Moment"

yogthos — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:12:50 +0000

They used two of my books and I'm still waiting for my cheque here.

New comment by yogthos in "The Fermi Paradox, Percolation, and Inbreeding"

yogthos — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 22:18:40 +0000

We kind of do though since we don't see crows accumulating knowledge at any scale comparable to humans and using this knowledge to shape their environment in increasingly complex ways. And crows very obviously do make tools and even teach each other to do it, so it's not like they don't have the inclination for it.

The language itself is a a human invention, and a product of how our brains are wired. However, there's a dialectical process here where the language shapes us in turn, and both our minds and our language evolve together. The reason we have more things to say stems from us accumulating knowledge and expanding out horizons through the use of our language.

New comment by yogthos in "The Fermi Paradox, Percolation, and Inbreeding"

yogthos — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 20:36:33 +0000

Sure, intelligence is a gradient, it's not something exclusive to humans. And different biological systems need to solve problems and create models of their environment in order to respond to it intentionally. However, that's tangential to the point I was making, which was that we are able to rapidly accumulate knowledge across generations giving us mastery of our environment that's qualitatively different from any other organism on the planet. And the next logical step here is machine intelligence where human style intellect could be implemented on a non-biological substrate which would open up completely new niches for postbiological life to inhabit.