https://arxiv.org/html/2408.04667v5

You say this, and yet there are no real comments i.e. discussion in either of them? This must be the HN equivalent of Stack Overflow's infamous "closed as duplicate".

> Any message designed to promote or sell a product, service, or brand, where there is a material connection between the speaker and the advertiser.

Yes, a discount is an ad - sometimes by the brand/manufacturer to get you to buy their product instead of a competitor, or by the seller to sell that product over others (for even mundane reasons like stock clearing).

Yes, sponsored content is an ad. The content creator is reimbursed for their output that is used to convince viewers to perform some purchase activity, usually over alternatives.

You’re really severely restricting the definition yourself by claiming an ad is “things that ublock origin” blocks. They can’t block physical banners and billboards or TV commercial breaks - does that now make them not ads? Whether you intended to buy something again doesn’t disqualify something from being an ad. In fact, that’s often when an ad is most effective - to buy the one they show you, instead of one you haven’t heard of or considered.

I find the way you operate - supporting and benefitting from Polymarket - to be equally disdainful from the same moralistic standpoint that gambling is banned from, but I guess even in orthodoxy one can bend the rules to their liking.

> Now you get basically the actual odds.

But that's the thing - insiders bet & trade at the very last minute, and thus are not supporting the /just cause/ of "information sharing", rather just plain, old front-running and racketeering. The odds you see when booking your flight are not the real odds - when the actual action happens just before event takes place.

https://ritchietorres.house.gov/posts/in-response-to-suspici...

Doesn’t Orthodox Judaism (like all religions) look quite harshly upon all forms of gambling? How is Polymarket kosher?

To be clear, I didn’t question efficient market hypotheses - my stance has been pretty clear along the thread, questioning the value of the kind of information gambled upon in popular prediction markets.

I missed a link to any source for this claim?

> I'd also challenge you to outperform

I wasn't making a competition out of this - rather I'm questioning the fundamental basis of this.

AI being static weights is already challenged with the frequent model updates we already see - but may even be a relic once we find a new architecture.

Are there any examples of people/companies trusting degenerate gamblers on prediction markets and making real life-changing decisions?

All the examples I’ve seen are exactly what I started in my original post - the insider circle opening a massive position on the right invasion date mere minutes/hours before they actually do it. This is useful to precisely nobody! And it happens because they are insiders, who want to avoid risk of exposure. Not to share their godly wisdom with the world for others benefit.

I severely dislike these euphemisms used by prediction market enthusiasts. What exactly is the value of information like “most searched person on Google in year N”? Creating 10s of options to answer this question via gambling on Polymarket/Kalshi does not help anyone except their fellow degenerates. Heck, even events like “by N date the USA invade country X” also offer no real value, except for the insider circle to front run their own invasion and profit from it. Even worse, apparently they provide anonymity and cover to illegal participants (eg obviously US citizens) just like crypto exchanges like Binance did.

I truly question the sanity of those who believe that prediction markets are providing a positive force in this world.