Hacker News: z7

New comment by z7 in "Child's Play: Tech's new generation and the end of thinking"

z7 — Sat, 21 Feb 2026 03:09:19 +0000

"As Alexander predicted in 'AI 2027,' OpenAI did release a major new model in 2025; unlike in his forecast, it’s been a damp squib. Advances seem to be plateauing; the conversation in tech circles is now less about superintelligence and more about the possibility of an AI bubble."

I'm not sure how many AI researchers would find this accurate. It seems to me that under conditions of ambiguity people often default to describing their preferred version of reality.

New comment by z7 in "Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers"

z7 — Fri, 30 Jan 2026 11:21:16 +0000

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to.

There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the crashes are drawn from a specific July-November window in Austin. It's not clear that those miles line up with the same geography and time period.

The sample size is tiny (nine crashes), uncertainty is huge, and the analysis doesn't distinguish between at-fault and not-at-fault incidents, or between preventable and non-preventable ones.

Also, the comparison to Waymo is stated without harmonizing crash definitions and reporting practices.

New comment by z7 in "Over 36,500 killed in Iran's deadliest massacre, documents reveal"

z7 — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 11:27:48 +0000

> The West is not complicit in the actions of the Iranian regime

What about the 1953 CIA/MI6 coup that overthrew Iran's elected prime minister?

New comment by z7 in "Self-hosting a NAT Gateway"

z7 — Sat, 22 Nov 2025 01:19:46 +0000

"You only live once."

Why state this as absolute fact? Seems a bit lacking in epistemic humility.

New comment by z7 in "Hi, it's me, Wikipedia, and I am ready for your apology"

z7 — Tue, 28 Oct 2025 16:16:06 +0000

Here's the Grokipedia submission (currently censored / flagged):

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45726459

New comment by z7 in "It's insulting to read AI-generated blog posts"

z7 — Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:16:15 +0000

Hypothetically, what if the AI-generated blog post were better than what the human author of the blog would have written?

New comment by z7 in "The dawn of the post-literate society – and the end of civilisation"

z7 — Sat, 20 Sep 2025 15:30:45 +0000

List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_ap...

New comment by z7 in "DeepMind and OpenAI win gold at ICPC"

z7 — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 22:42:11 +0000

Current cope collection:

- It's not a fair match, these models have more compute and memory than humans

- Contestants weren't really elite, they're just college level programmers, not the world's best

- This doesn't matter for the real world, competitive programming is very different from regular software engineering

- It's marketing, they're just cranking up the compute to unrealistic levels to gain PR points

- It's brute force, not intelligence

New comment by z7 in "An LLM is a lossy encyclopedia"

z7 — Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:10:43 +0000

An encyclopaedia is a lossy representation of reality.

New comment by z7 in "His psychosis was a mystery–until doctors learned about ChatGPT's health advice"

z7 — Wed, 13 Aug 2025 13:40:58 +0000

Meanwhile this new paper claims that GPT-5 surpasses medical professionals in medical reasoning:

"On MedXpertQA MM, GPT-5 improves reasoning and understanding scores by +29.62% and +36.18% over GPT-4o, respectively, and surpasses pre-licensed human experts by +24.23% in reasoning and +29.40% in understanding."

https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.08224

New comment by z7 in "GPT-5"

z7 — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 22:49:05 +0000

Yes, but the jump in performance from o3 is well beyond marginal while also fitting an exponential trend, which undermines the parent's claim on two counts.

New comment by z7 in "GPT-5"

z7 — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 19:20:37 +0000

>The actual benchmark improvements are marginal at best

GPT-5 demonstrates exponential growth in task completion times:

https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...

New comment by z7 in "GPT-5"

z7 — Thu, 07 Aug 2025 17:31:12 +0000

GPT-5 is #1 on WebDev Arena with +75 pts over Gemini 2.5 Pro and +100 pts over Claude Opus 4:

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

New comment by z7 in "OpenAI claims gold-medal performance at IMO 2025"

z7 — Sat, 19 Jul 2025 10:34:35 +0000

Some previous predictions:

In 2021 Paul Christiano wrote he would update from 30% to "50% chance of hard takeoff" if we saw an IMO gold by 2025.

He thought there was an 8% chance of this happening.

Eliezer Yudkowsky said "at least 16%".

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challe...

New comment by z7 in "Grok 4 Launch [video]"

z7 — Thu, 10 Jul 2025 14:17:09 +0000

How do you explain Grok 4 achieving new SOTA on ARC-AGI-2, nearly doubling the previous commercial SOTA?

https://x.com/arcprize/status/1943168950763950555

New comment by z7 in "Grok 4 Launch [video]"

z7 — Thu, 10 Jul 2025 10:09:41 +0000

"Grok 4 (Thinking) achieves new SOTA on ARC-AGI-2 with 15.9%."

"This nearly doubles the previous commercial SOTA and tops the current Kaggle competition SOTA."

https://x.com/arcprize/status/1943168950763950555

New comment by z7 in "O3 beats a master-level GeoGuessr player, even with fake EXIF data"

z7 — Tue, 29 Apr 2025 17:10:09 +0000

Quoting Chollet:

>I have repeatedly said that "can LLM reason?" was the wrong question to ask. Instead the right question is, "can they adapt to novelty?".

https://x.com/fchollet/status/1866348355204595826

New comment by z7 in "AI 2027"

z7 — Sat, 05 Apr 2025 15:12:57 +0000

It's just predicting tokens:

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1jl5qfs/its_ju...

New comment by z7 in "Marine Le Pen banned from running in 2027 and given four-year sentence"

z7 — Mon, 31 Mar 2025 15:50:43 +0000

Why are you hallucinating feelings? Also, appeal to authority. ("Why are your feelings relevant to the wizarding laws of Hogwarts?")

New comment by z7 in "4o Image Generation"

z7 — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 03:31:10 +0000

>For starters, this completely blocks generation of anything remotely related to copy-protected IPs