Next, comes natural attrition in a company where a certain percentage will leave every year. Will they get replaced with a human or their budget goes into tokens?

Only when these 2 angles are exhausted, a typical company will start thinking about layoffs.

Now, some companies are already stressed: customer buy AI products instead of theirs, AI makes it easier to build what they offer, customers believe they can vibe code things. These companies will layoff first, because of AI. Not because AI will do the persons job but because the money gets spend differently.

The more interesting question is: Has the ease of replacibility increased because of AI?

I see the opposite in most startups that have a 6 day work week to get ahead of the "slowly moving" 5 day work week competition.

Viruses btw never reflect on killing the host :P

The answer can't be, let's just consume 10x less. We have to engineer our way out of it.

Even more interesting is the question if we would have a deepseek model without the US frontier models.

And then what's the value of the advantage that the frontier models have. It's definitely 100x more valuable to find zero days 3months earlier. Probably not in every domain but in enough domains having the smartest model is valuable.

4B over 5 years is 20B, which is significant.

I remember when we started working on our teams bot in 2023, Microsoft announced that they will stop supporting Python for the teams sdk, which felt super short sighted. Eventually they silently picked it up again and the old sdk never stopped working.

Kudos for turning it around. I believe it'll last this time as AI agents in communication tools are something a lot of people want. and unlike pre LLM chatbots and agents, they are so much more useful now.